[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a 1010 mb low
pressure system is centered near 27N90W. A warm front extends
eastward from the low to 27N84W, where a stationary front
continues to SW Florida. A cold front extends southward from the
low to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present to the north and east of the
low. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to
gale-force winds to the north of 26N and east of 92W. Seas in
these waters are 8-13 ft, with the highest seas occurring south of
Alabama and NW Florida. The low will continue to move ENE through
the week, gradually dragging the cold front across the Gulf
waters. Gale force winds and rough seas will continue through Wed
across the northern semicircle of the low. Marine conditions are
expected to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure
building across the basin this upcoming weekend.

Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A complex low
pressure system is expected to develop along a frontal boundary
off the southeast coast of Florida Thur morning. A tight pressure
gradient between strong high pressure to the NE and the broad area
of low pressure center will support strong to near-gale force
winds N of 27N and E of 70W beginning Thu. Gale force ENE winds
are possible in the northern semicircle of the low, offshore
central Florida and north of the Bahamas Thu afternoon and Thu
night, supporting seas of 12-16 ft. The low will lift north of 31N
by Fri, and will drag a cold front across the waters in its wake
through the upcoming weekend.

Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following
website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea: A large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across
the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests
in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the
Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles
through the end of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas
may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 05N35W and to 07N58W. Isolated to
scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 12N and
between 30W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the ongoing gale-force winds in the northern and NE Gulf.

A dry and stable airmass is found over most of the western Gulf,
west of 90W. This is behind the cold front associated with the
gale-force low described in the Special Features section. A modest
pressure gradient support fresh to strong northerly winds, west
of 90W. The strongest winds are found in the SW Gulf, off
Veracruz. Seas of 8-12 ft are occurring off Veracruz. Seas of 4-8
ft are noted elsewhere west of 90W. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident in the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in these waters. Meanwhile,
light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the south-
central Gulf.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from 27N82W to 27.5N84W
then continues as a warm front to 1011 mb low pressure near 26.5N90W.
A cold front extends from the low to the eastern Bay of Campeche.
The low will continue to move ENE through the week, gradually
dragging the cold front across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds
and rough seas will continue through Wed across the northern
semicircle of the low. Marine conditions are expected to improve
by the end of the week, with high pressure building across the
basin this upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is analyzed from NE Nicaragua to northern
Yucatan. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture are
helping to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the northwestern and southwestern Caribbean Sea, mainly
west of 77W. Meanwhile, a dry airmass is suppressing deep
convection in the remainder of the basin.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds occurring off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.
These winds sustain seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean through Thu. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean this week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
latter part of the week while moving northeastward across the
western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains
over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the
Greater Antilles through the end of this week. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 25N70W, where it transitions
into a stationary front, which then continues to the NW Bahamas
and SE Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
present near these frontal boundaries. The deepest convection is
noted off eastern Florida. Latest satellite-derived wind data and
surface observations indicate that fresh to strong easterly winds
prevail west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. The
strongest winds and highest seas are occurring north of 24N and
west of a line from 24N73W to 31N78W. Moderate to locally strong
northerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found north of the frontal
boundaries described, east of 70W. Moderate to locally fresh SW-S
winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted north of 26N and west of 40W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned west of Portugal. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics support fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 5-8
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a frontal boundary extends from 31N43W
to the NW Bahamas to S Florida. Fresh to strong NE-E winds
prevail N of the front with seas to 10 ft. High pressure will
continue to build in the wake of the front N of the area Wed. This
will support an area of strong to near-gale winds over the waters
N of 25N and W of 70W beginning on Wed. A broad area of low
pressure may develop over the waters W of 70W the second half of
the week, with the strong to near-gale force winds shifting to the
waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward the end of the week. Gale
force winds are possible N of 27N Thu afternoon and Thu night,
lifting N of 31N Fri. The low will drag a cold front across the
waters in its wake through the upcoming weekend.

$$
Delgado
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