[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is in the north central Gulf
of Mexico. This low pressure center has been moving slowly
toward the northeast during the last few days. A stationary
front connects to the low pressure center, from the southern
parts of Florida. A cold front connects to the low pressure
center from the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Gale-force
winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet,
are from 29N to 30N between 85W and 86W. Elsewhere: from
27N to 30N between 82W and 91W, expect E winds from 20 knots
to 30 knots, and sea heights from 8 feet to 12 feet.
Expect NW to N winds from 20 knots to 25 knots, and sea heights
to range from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 18N to 20N between
94W and 96W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz
in Mexico. Elsewhere: from 19N to 23N between 93W and 97W,
moderate or slower winds and sea heights from 8 feet to
10 feet in N to NE swell.

Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following
website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the gales.

...Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning...

A complex low pressure system is expected to develop along
a frontal boundary off the southeast coast of Florida Thu
morning. A tight pressure gradient between strong high
pressure to the NE and the broad area of low pressure
center will support strong to near-gale force winds
N of 27N and E of 70W beginning Thu. Gale force ENE winds
are expected in the northern semicircle of the low, offshore
central Florida and north of the Bahamas Thu afternoon and
Thu night, supporting seas of 12-16 ft.

...The Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea...

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 75W in Colombia,
beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean.
A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the Yucatan
Channel to 12N82W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 70W
westward. The environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for development of this system. It
is likely for a tropical depression to form during the
latter part of the week. The system is forecast to move
northeastward, through the western and central parts of
the Caribbean Sea. Anyone who has interests in Jamaica,
Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, should monitor
the progress of this system. This system has the potential
to produce heavy rains in parts of the Caribbean Sea coast
of Central America and the Greater Antilles, through the
end of this week. There is a high chance of tropical
cyclone development during the next 7 days.

...Sea Heights of 12 Feet or Higher...

Sea heights of 12 feet or higher will start tonight, from 29N
northward between 50W and 65W. Everything will spread eastward
and southward during the next few days. The coverage of the
12 foot sea heights by Friday will be from 23N northward
between 30W and 55W during the weekend. The peak seas from
15 feet to 16 feet, will occur between Thursday and Friday,
from 30N northward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland, in Guinea and in Senegal.
A surface trough is in the coastal plains/the coastal waters
of Africa from Senegal northward. The ITCZ is along 05N11W
06N15W 04N30W 02N43W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the areas that are from 20N southward between 30W and
50W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is mixed with the
cyclonic wind flow, from 13N to 23N from 50W eastward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from the ITCZ to 10N between 32W and 47W.

The SW part of an upper level Atlantic Ocean NE-to-SW
oriented trough reaches the NE parts of South America,
from French Guiana to NE Venezuela. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 13N
between 53W and 64W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force winds forecast that is related to the
1009 mb low pressure center.

A stationary front extends from 26N82W to low pres near
28N88.5W with cold front from the low to the Yucatan
Peninsula. The low will continue to move ENE through the
week, gradually dragging the fronts across the Gulf waters.
Near-gale winds and rough seas will continue through Thu
across the northern semicircle of the low. Marine conditions
are expected to improve by the end of the week, with high
pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and rough seas, are in the
central one-third of the area. Moderate seas cover much of
the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for the slight
seas that are within 60 nm to 120 nm from land. Fresh to
moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 75W in Colombia,
beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean.
A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the Yucatan
Channel to 12N82W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 70W
westward.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 15/1200 UTC, are: 0.38 in Trinidad, and 0.31
in Bermuda, 0.22 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.18
in Curacao, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 70W eastward.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through late Wed. A broad area of low pressure
is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean in
the next few days. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for additional development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form toward
the end of this week while the system begins moving
northeastward across the western and central portions
of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
this system has the potential to produce heavy rains
over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America
and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development
in the next 7 days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale-Force
Wind Warning.

Two cold fronts extend southwestward, from the north central
Atlantic Ocean, to the Bahamas, and to South Florida.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
20N northward from 30W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward
from the cold fronts eastward, with a surface ridge.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is in the Atlantic
Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea, within 270 nm on either
side of 22N40W 17N50W 15N58W 15N70W.

Fresh to moderate winds, and moderate seas, cover the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A frontal boundary extends from 31N49W to the central Bahamas
to S Florida. Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail N of the
front with seas to 10 ft. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front N of the area today. This will support
an area of strong to near-gale winds over the waters
N of 25N and W of 70W beginning tonight. A broad area of
low pressure may develop over the waters W of 75W the
second half of the week, with the strong to near-gale
force winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and W of 70W
toward the end of the week. Gale force winds are possible
N of 27N Thu afternoon and Thu night, lifting N of 31N
Fri afternoon. The low will drag a frontal boundary across
the waters in its wake through the upcoming weekend.

$$
mt/al
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