[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Gale Wind Warning: a strong cold
front extends from 31N61W to 26N72W with a stationary front
extending from that point to the coast of Belize near 28N88W.
Expect strong to gale- force winds and rough seas behind the front
from 23N northward between 70W and 84W. Gusts to gale- force are
forecast from 75W westward. Seas are up to 14 ft north fo the
Bahamas and across the Straits of Florida. Gales will come to an
end by Fri morning with the strong winds diminishing by Sat. Seas
will subside by Sat. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast
that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about
these warnings.

Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance
(Invest 97L) is located in the central Caribbean Sea near
14.5N79W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. This low is moving
westward toward Central America. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur before it moves inland over
Central America Friday night or Saturday. Plenty of tropical
moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy
rains over portions of Jamaica through tonight and over western
Central America from Friday through the weekend. This rainfall is
likely to result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please
refer to the local weather services for more information. This
system has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and
next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06.5N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N16W to
02N31W to 03N44W. No significant convection is noted along the
monsoon trough and ITCZ at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the Gale
Warning in the Straits of Florida.

High pressure ridge prevails across the basin. Gale-force winds
continue across the Straits of Florida with strong to near gale-
force winds noted in the SE Gulf. Seas in this area range 8 to 13
ft, with the highest seas south of the Florida Keys. Strong winds
are also noted near Veracruz, Mexico with seas 8 to 10 ft.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh W to NW winds are noted across the
eastern and southern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are occurring in
the NW Gulf. Seas range 4 to 7 ft across the rest of the Gulf,
except 2-3 ft in the NW basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure continue to build over the
area in the wake of a frontal boundary currently E of the area.
The associated tight gradient between the front and strong high
pressure continue to support strong to gale force NE winds and
rough seas in the Florida Straits and portions of the SE gulf.
These winds are forecast to continue through early Fri. Fresh to
strong northerly winds in the Bay of Campeche and rough seas to 10
ft will diminish by this evening. Conditions further improve Sun
into early next week as high pressure settles over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the potential heavy rainfall event for Central America caused by
Invest AL97.

Scattered moderate convection is noted near Invest AL97 from 13N
to 18N between 77W and 81W. A stationary front extends across the
Yucatan Channel to the coast of Belize. A pre-frontal trough
extends just off the coast of eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted around the pre- frontal trough
and AL97 from 14N to 20N between 79W and 85W. Fresh to locally
strong winds are occurring across the NW Caribbean with seas 5 to
9 ft.

Meanwhile, in the central and eastern Caribbean, scattered
thunderstorms are noted. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in
the central Caribbean, south of Jamaica and Hispaniola to 16N.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Light to gentle winds are noted
S of 16N to Central America. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds
are noted in the eastern basin. Seas range 3 to 5 ft across the
rest of the central and eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, outside of AL97, the stationary front will
remain stationary while it gradually weakens through late Fri.
Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the
front and its remnants will prevail in the NW Caribbean through
early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-central and portions
of the SW Caribbean associated with AL97 will continue to affect
these regions through Sat morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 75 nm of the
strong cold front across the Bahamas. Please see the Special
Features section for more details on winds and seas.

In the central Atlantic, one trough has an axis along 47W with
another along 37W. Divergence aloft coupled with the trough is
leading to scattered moderate convection from 17N to 25N between
35W and 54W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 07N
to 15N between 37W and 53W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in
this area with 5 to 8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, surface
ridging prevails with fresh to strong winds and seas 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will completely stall
this evening and start to weaken while lifting to the NW Fri
before dissipating Sat. The remnant trough is forecast to be over
the northern Bahamas offshore waters the remaining weekend.
Ongoing gust to gale force NE winds and rough seas behind the
front, and across the northern and central Bahamas offshore
waters, the southern Florida seaboard as well as the Florida
Straits will continue through early Fri.

$$
AReinhart
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