[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Gale Wind Warning: a pronounced
stationary front extends from east of Bermuda across 31N62W and
the central Bahamas to near the Yucatan Channel. Expect strong to
gale-force easterly winds and rough seas of 12 to 15 ft up to 150
nm behind the front behind 73W and 85W, including the northwest
Bahamas and Florida Straits through Friday morning. Afterward,
both winds and seas will gradually diminish Friday evening through
Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for details about these warnings.

Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance
(Invest 97L) is located in the west-central Caribbean Sea near
14.5N79.5W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Numerous heavy
showers and scattered thunderstorms are flaring up from 14N to 19N
west of 77W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This low is
gradually moving westward toward Central America. Development, if
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur before it
moves inland over Central America Friday night or Saturday. Plenty
of tropical moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to
produce heavy rains over portions of central America from Belize
and Guatemala southward to Panama from Friday through early next
week. This rainfall is likely to result in flash flooding and
possible landslides. Please refer to the local weather services
for more information. This system has a low chance of development
over the next 48 hours and next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near Conakry, then reaches westward to near 06N16W. An ITCZ
continues west-southwestward from 06N16W across 04N25W to 02N36W.
No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough. Widely
scattered moderate convection is found up to 180 nm along either
side of the ITCZ west of 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning in
the Straits of Florida.

A stationary front curves southwestward from the central Bahamas
across the Florida Straits to near the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
showers are occurring along and up to 150 nm north of the front.
A surface ridge extends northeastward from a 1022 mb high near
Veracruz, Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Outside the Gale
Warning area, Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8
to 12 ft are found at the southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist
across the central and northeastern Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, strong high pressure continue to build over the
area in the wake of the stationary front. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas up to 10 ft in the Bay of Campeche will
diminish overnight. Conditions should further improve Sun into
early next week as high pressure settles over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the potential
heavy rainfall for Central America related to Invest AL97.

A broad surface trough curves northeastward from the
aforementioned Invest AL97 to beyond eastern Cuba. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and easter Cuba. An upper-level low
near 15N64W is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern and south-central basin. Fresh to strong NNE to ENE winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the northwestern basin. Fresh
with locally strong E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the
west-central and north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 1 to 3 ft dominate the southwestern basin. Moderate to
fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, Invest AL97 is expected to bring heavy rains
over portions of Jamaica through tonight and across Central
America through early next week. A stationary front extending
from the western tip of Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will remain
stationary while it gradually weakens through late Fri. Fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas associated with the front and its
remnants will prevail in the northwestern basin through early
Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-central and portions of
the southwestern basin associated with AL97 will continue to
affect these regions through Sat morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for a Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

A pronounced stationary front extends from east of Bermuda across
31N62W and the central Bahamas. Widely to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 160 nm northwest
of the front. A surface trough curves southwestward from 25N70W
across the southeast Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba. Widely
scattered moderate convection is occurring near the central
Bahamas. An upper-level low near 22N50W is producing similar
convection from 17N to 25N between 37W and 57W. Convergent trade
winds are causing scattered moderate convection from 08N to 16N
between 40W and 53W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas
of 8 to 10 ft are evident behind the stationary front north of
27N between 65W and Florida/Georgia coast. East of the front,
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist north of
24N west of 39W. To the south, moderate with locally fresh ENE to
E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted from 10N to 24N between 38W
and the Lesser Antilles. For the eastern Atlantic, moderate to
fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft dominate north of
08N between the Africa coast and 38W, including the Canary and
Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will start to weaken while
lifting to the northwest Fri before dissipating Sat. The remnant
trough is forecast to be over the northwest Bahamas offshore
waters the remaining weekend. Ongoing gusts to gale force NE
winds and rough seas behind the front, and across the northwest
and central Bahamas offshore waters, the southern Florida seaboard
as well as the Florida Straits will continue through early Fri.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net