[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Wind Warning: a strong cold front extends from
31N66W to 22.5N79W. Expect strong to gale-force winds and rough
seas behind the front from 23N northward between 70W and 81W,
including in the Atlantic exposures. Gusts to gale-force are
forecast from 75W westward. Expect these conditions through the
next 24 hours.

Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about
these warnings.

Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance
(Invest 97L) currently in the central Caribbean Sea is moving
westward toward the region. Plenty of tropical moisture and an
unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy rains Friday
through early next week, especially for western Central America.
Drier air will arrive by midweek. This rainfall is likely to
result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please refer to
the local weather services for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06.5N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from
06.5N17.5W to 02N43W. Isolates to scattered moderate convection
is noted along the ITCZ between 21W-36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge prevails across the basin. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail mainly N of 22N. Strong to near gale winds are
noted in the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida, While, fresh
to strong northerly winds are present in the Bay of Campeche.
Seas of 3-7 ft prevail N of 27N, while 7-11 ft seas prevail S of
27N, except for 12-14 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, strong high pressure continue to build over the
area in the wake of a former cold front currently E of the area.
The associated tight gradient between the front and strong high
pressure is supporting strong to gale force NE winds and rough
seas in the Florida Straits and the SE Gulf. These winds are
forecast to continue through tonight/early Fri. Fresh to strong
northerly winds in the Bay of Campeche and rough seas to 11 ft
will diminish by this evening. Conditions further improve Sun into
early next week as high pressure settles over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Invest AL97 is analyzed over the central Caribbean near 14.5N75.5W,
1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within the low. A
stationary front extending from the western tip of Cuba
southwestward to Belize. While a pre-frontal trough is analyzed
ahead of the stationary front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted across the western half of the basin W of
74.5W in association with the pre-frontal trough. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds and seas to 10 ft are found in the NW
Caribbean. Moderate easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are
occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
portions of the central and western Caribbean Sea are associated
with a broad area of low pressure, AL97, located near 14.5N75.5W
at 1200 UTC. Development, if any, of this system is expected to
be slow to occur before it moves inland over Central America
Friday night or Saturday. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Jamaica
through tonight and across Central America on Friday and over the
weekend. A stationary front extending from the western tip of Cuba
southwestward to Belize will remain stationary while gradually
weaken through late Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough
seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in
the NW Caribbean through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the
north-central and portions of the SW Caribbean associated with
AL97 will continue to affect these regions through Sat morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale-force warning currently in effect for the W Atlantic.

A strong cold front extends from 31N62W to 29N67W where it
transitions to a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to
western Cuba. Ahead of the front a pre-frontal trough extends
from 31N63W to 23N71W with scattered showers. To the E, a 1017 mb
low is centered near 25N56.5W. Divergence aloft is producing
scattered moderate convection from 07N to 13N between 45W and
58.5W. To the NE, a pair of surface troughs are enhancing
convection from 16N-23N between 29W-47W. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Moderate to rough seas are from 26N northward between 28W-42W.
Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh
winds cover most of the area.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will remain stationary
through Fri when it will start to weaken before dissipating Sat.
A remnant trough then will drift back to the W over the waters
north of the Bahamas the remaining weekend. Gust to gale force NE
winds and rough seas are ongoing behind the front across the
northern and central Bahamas offshore waters, the southern Florida
seaboard as well as the Florida Straits. These conditions are
forecast to continue through early Fri.

$$
KRV
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net