[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has passed
through the basin and now extends from the Straits of Florida,
across the Yucatan Channel and to northern Belize. Gale force
winds of 40 kt and very rough seas to 20 ft are in the SW Gulf.
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force over the Bay of
Campeche overnight. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across
the majority of the basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas will continue to affect the southeastern Gulf
and the Straits of Florida through Fri before diminishing Sat.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from near
31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida will reach
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, and stall.
Strong NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough
seas are behind the front, and will prevail through Fri. The front
is expected to dissipate on Sat, with the remnant trough drifting
back to the W over the waters north of the Bahamas. Marine
conditions will significantly improve starting late Sat.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal, then continues westward to near 12N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 12N19W to 07N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N between 20W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front moved across the Gulf waters bringing strong
to gale force northerly winds and very rough seas. Please, see the
Special Features section for more details.

Mainly fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas are noted over the
Gulf basin north of 21N. A wide band of mainly low clouds with
scattered light to moderate showers associated with the front
remain in the southwest Gulf. This cloudiness is also banked up
along the E slope of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico.
Veracruz is reporting drizzle. Dry air along with moderate NE
winds are noted over the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, weather conditions across the Gulf region
remain associated with the passage of the strong cold front.
Please, refer to the the Special Features section for more
information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shower and thunderstorm activity remain disorganized in
association with an area of low pressure, Invest AL97, over the
central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become slightly more conducive for development in a day or two,
and a tropical depression could form when the system moves over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the latter part of this
week. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this
week and into the weekend. Currently, this system has a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium
chance through 7 days.

Otherwise, a strong cold front extends from western Cuba southwestward
to northern Belize. A few showers are seen off eastern Yucatan,
while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in
the SW Caribbean. Fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are
found in the NW Caribbean, mainly within 200 nm of the Yucatan
Channel. Fresh northerly winds and wave heights of 1-3 ft are
present off eastern Nicaragua. Moderate easterly trade winds and
seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong cold front extending from western
Cuba southwestward to inland the southern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu
morning, then become stationary and dissipate on Sat. Strong to
near gale force northeast winds and rough seas will follow the
front through Fri night before diminishing on Sat. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected across the central Caribbean late Thu
into Fri due to the pressure gradient between AL97 and strong high
pressure north of the area. Winds and sea conditions improve further
starting late Sat and into next week high pressure north of the
area weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see the Special Features section for more details on a
cold front moving across the SW Atlantic waters, west of 70W.

A weak trough of low pressure extends from near 30N66W to the
Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered showers are depicted within 60
nm of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas
of 4-7 ft are found east of the trough, north of 28N and between
60W and 65W. High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a
ridge southwestward to the Greater Antilles supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of 20N between 50W and 70W. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh locally easterly winds prevail across most of
the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.


For the forecast W of 55W, the strong cold front is expected to
stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thur morning. Please,
see the Special Features section for more details related to the
cold front.

$$
Mora
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