[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front is passing through 31N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Andros Island in the Bahamas, through Cuba along 80W, into the NW
Caribbean Sea, to Belize, and to the northern parts of Guatemala.
Expect gale-force NW to N winds, and sea heights that range from
12 feet to 23 feet, including within 60 nm of the coast of
Veracruz in Mexico, from 18N to 21N between 94W and 96W. Expect
strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere, from
22N northward between 87W and 98W. Expect strong winds, and
moderate seas, from 24N to 30N between 81W and 86W.
Gale-force winds, or gusts to gale-force, are forecast to be in
the Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 hours or so.

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, from 23N
northward between 70W and 81W, including in the Atlantic Ocean
exposures. Gusts to gale-force are forecast from 74W westward.
Expect these same conditions for the next 24 hours or so.

Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W, to 05N30W 04N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 08N between 24W and
30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force winds that are associated with the cold front that
has been moving through Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours
or so. cold front. Very rough to high seas are in the SW corner of
the area. Rough seas are elsewhere from 28N southward. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong high pressure is building over the area in the wake of a
strong cold front. The associated tight gradient is allowing for
NW gale winds of 40 kt and very rough seas of 15 to 23 ft in the
far SW Gulf. These winds are forecast to diminish to just below
gale force by late tonight. Winds and seas will begin to diminish
across the majority of the basin on Thu. Fresh to strong northeast
winds and rough seas will continue to affect the southeastern
Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Fri before diminishing
Sat. Winds may reach near gale force across the Straits of Florida
tonight through early Fri. Conditions further improve Sun into
early next week as high pressure settles over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

...INVEST-AL97...
A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 14.5N 73.5W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that
are from the Netherlands Antilles to the central Caribbean Sea to
the west central sections of the area. It is possible that the
environmental conditions may become a little more conducive for
some development of this disturbance during the next couple of
days, before it moves inland into Central America by this weekend.
This system has the potential to produce heavy rains in parts of
Central America late this week and into the weekend.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 20.5N72W, between the SE
Bahamas and Haiti. A surface trough extends northeastward from the
low pressure center, to 31N65W. Precipitation: scattered strong
in clusters is within 510 nm of the western quadrant. The
precipitation covers parts of: the waters that are between the
Bahamas and Cuba, SE Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the Caribbean
Sea that is to the west of Jamaica.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 70W
eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong convective precipitation, are in parts of Central
America from Nicaragua southward, around the periphery of
Tropical Storm Pilar, that is near 12N92.5W in the Pacific Ocean.

Rough seas are in the Yucatan Channel, moving into the far NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are from
Cuba southward to 17N from the Windward Passage and Jamaica
westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh easterly winds are in the
eastern one-third of the area. Gentle to moderate wind speeds,
and slight seas, are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 02/0000 UTC, are: 2.98 in Bermuda, and
1.29 in Curacao.

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in
association with a trough of low pressure, AL97, over the central
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development over the next couple of days
before the system moves inland over Central America by this
weekend. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this
week and into the weekend. A strong cold front extending from
western Cuba southwestward to Belize will reach from eastern Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras Thu morning, then become stationary and
dissipate by Sat. Strong to near gale force northeast winds and
rough seas will follow the front through Fri night before
diminishing on Sat. Fresh to strong winds are also expected across
the central Caribbean late Thu into Fri due to the pressure
gradient between AL97 and strong high pressure north of the area.
Wind/seas conditions diminish further starting late Sat and into
next week high pressure north of the area weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force winds that are associated with the
Atlantic Ocean-to-NW Caribbean Sea cold front.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 20.5N72W, between the SE
Bahamas and Haiti. A surface trough extends northeastward from the
low pressure center, to 31N65W. Precipitation: scattered strong
in clusters is within 510 nm of the western quadrant. The
precipitation covers parts of: the waters that are between the
Bahamas and Cuba, SE Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the Caribbean
Sea that is to the west of Jamaica. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 150 nm on either side of the surface trough.

A second surface trough is along 30N55W, to a 1014 mb low
pressure center that is near 24N57W, to 17N60W. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm on either
side of the surface trough.

A third surface trough curves along 28N39W 21N41W 16N47W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within
330 nm to the west and northwest of the surface trough.

A fourth surface trough is along 20N38W 13N37W 06N35W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within
120 nm on either side of the trough.

A fifth surface trough is about 210 nm to the east of the fourth
surface trough. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the surface
trough from 13N to 19N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 150 nm on either side of the rest of the fifth surface
trough.

Moderate to rough seas are from 28N northward between 25W and 40W,
and within 360 nm of the coast of Africa from 16N to 23N. Moderate
seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh
winds cover most of the area.

A strong cold front extending from near 31N69W to the central
Bahamas and to western Cuba will continue moving SE reaching from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, and then stall.
The front is expected to dissipate on Sat, with the remnant trough
drifting back to the W over the waters north of the Bahamas.
Strong winds and rough seas, with some of the zones experiencing
frequent gusts to gale force, are expected behind the front
through Thu night. Marine conditions will significantly improve
starting late Sat and into next week as high pressure over the
region weakens.

$$
mt/era
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