[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the
Straits of Florida to inland the northeast part of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Gale force winds of 40 kt and very rough seas of 20 to
24 ft are in the SW Gulf. Additionally, frequent gusts to gale
force are in the NE Gulf. The front will move southeast of the
basin this morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale
force over the Bay of Campeche by tonight. Winds and seas will
also begin to diminish across the NW Gulf today, and across much
of the basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas will continue to affect the southeastern Gulf and the Straits
of Florida through Fri before diminishing Sat.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from near
31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida will reach
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, and stall.
The front is expected to dissipate on Sat, with the remnant trough
drifting back to the W over the waters north of the Bahamas.
Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough seas
are expected behind the front through Fri.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea Bissau then continues westward to near 10.5N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 10.5N21W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted over the E Atlantic from the Equator to
17N between 11W and 36W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf waters
followed by strong to gale force northerly winds and very rough
seas. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

A wide band of mainly low clouds with scattered light to moderate
showers are associated with the front. This cloudiness is also
banked up along the E slope of the Sierra Madre Mountains in
Mexico. Veracruz is reporting drizzle. Dry air is already entering
the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, weather conditions across the Gulf region
remain associated with the passage of a strong cold front,
forecast to exit the basin this morning. Please, refer to the the
Special Features section for more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the
central Caribbean Sea in association with a weak tropical
disturbance (Invest 97L). Environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for development in a day or two, and a
tropical depression could form when the system moves over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this
week and into the weekend. Currently, this system has a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium
chance through 7 days.

A few showers are seen off eastern Yucatan, while scattered
showers are evident in the SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found in the NW Caribbean,
mainly within 200 nm of the Yucatan Channel. Fresh northerly winds
and wave heights of 1-2 ft are present off eastern Nicaragua.
Moderate easterly trade winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in
the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized in association with a trough of low pressure, AL97,
over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become slightly more conducive for development in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression could form during the
latter part of this week while moving generally westward over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, a strong cold front
extending from western Cuba southwestward to inland the NE
Yucatan Peninsula will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Thu morning, then become stationary and dissipate on Sat.
Strong to near gale northeast winds and rough seas will follow
the front through Fri night before diminishing on Sat. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected across the central Caribbean late
Thu into Fri due to the pressure gradient between AL97 and strong
high pressure north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak area of low pressure is located near 30N70W. No
significant convection is depicted in association with this low.
A surface trough extends from a another low outside of our waters
across to the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. This trough is
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N
to 28N between 65.5W and 73W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
and seas of 4-7 ft are found north of 26N and between 57W and 70W.

High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge
southwestward across the waters between 59W and 67W. Another 1009
mb low pressure system is near 25N54W. Scattered showers and a
isolated thunderstorms related to an upper-level low are affecting
the waters E of the Lesser Antilles, particularly from 10N to 14N
between 51W and 55W. Moderate to locally easterly winds prevail
across most of the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas in these
waters are 4-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak low will move northeastward
ahead of a strong cold front currently moving across the NW
waters. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details related to the cold front.

$$
KRV/SDR
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