[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W, from 11W
southward, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 26W and 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 36W, from 11N
southward, moving west at 10 knots. No significant convection is
observed.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 49W from
11N southward, moving west at 10 knots. No significant
convection is observed.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 55W from 11N
southward. A few showers and thunderstorms are observed over
South America.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 75W from 13N
southward, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is observed over South America from 07N to 11N
between 72W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 13N16W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 06N35W
and resumes from 06N38W to 05N47W. Numerous moderate with
embedded strong convection is observed south of the monsoon
trough from 03N to 10N between 06W and 19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Unstable conditions in the SE Gulf are supporting scattered
moderate convection from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida
Straits. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are generally light to
gentle, except for moderate easterlies stretching across the
north central Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft in
the north central Gulf.

For the forecast, an upper level-trough is producing showers and
thunderstorms over the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. A
surface trough is expected to take shape Wed, and extend from
near the Yucatan Peninsula north-northeastward to the Florida
Big Bend by Wed night. Surface low pressure could form along
this trough Wed or Thu and is expected to meander over the
eastern Gulf through Fri. Environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for additional development during this
time. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected across
most of the eastern half of the Gulf Wed into Fri. Winds
associated with this system are forecast to be fresh over the NE
Gulf beginning Wed night. The system should move eastward over
Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean by the weekend. Elsewhere,
over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to
moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional fresh pulses
along the W coast of Yucatan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection extends across the NW Caribbean,
with thunderstorms noted in the Yucatan Channel and Windward
Passage. Recent scatterometer and buoy data confirm winds are
generally moderate from the SE across the majority of the basin
with 3-5 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle
to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N
Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses
along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become
southerly gentle to moderate over the central part of the basin
Fri through Sun night ahead of a trough that is expected to move
into the western Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends across the western Atlantic
from 31N69W to 26N75W where a surface trough continues further
to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 25N to 29N between 66W and 79W. Winds are gentle
to moderate across the western Atlantic, with 3-5 ft seas. In
the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N48W to 29N54W
to 31N59W. North of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from
the west. South of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from
the SW. Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N24W to
27N33W to 28N38W. A warm front extends from 28N38W to 31N41W. A
recent scatterometer pass found fresh NW winds north of these
boundaries and fresh SW winds south of the cold front. These
features combined are supporting 6-8 ft seas north of 27N in the
central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing moderate
trade winds across the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from near Havana,
Cuba northeastward to near 30N70W will be the focal point for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next
couple of days. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form
along this trough Thu night to the southwest of Bermuda, when
the trough is forecast to extend from 30N67W to South Florida.
Fresh to strong winds may cover a large area with this low as it
slides E along a cold front to the S of Bermuda on Fri. At the
same time, another broad area of low pressure over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico late this week will move E across Florida and
into the western Atlantic over the weekend. As a result,
increasing winds and building seas are likely between Florida
and 60W this weekend. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are
expected offshore northeast Florida Sun and Sun night behind a
cold front.

$$
Flynn
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