[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean is analyzed along 21W, from 11N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described below.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 35W, from 11N
southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described
below.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 48W, from 11N
southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described
below.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 61W/62W, from 11N
southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described
below.


A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 74W, from 13N
southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described
below.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 11N to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to
06N33W, then resumes from 04N36W to 04.5N47W. Scattered to
numerous strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 06W
and 17W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 08N between 17W and 27W, and from 06N to 13.5N between
41W and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico, with
unstable conditions and rising motion generally E of 90W. At the
surface, a weakening frontal trough extends through the Straits of
Florida to near 25.5N86W, where a surface low appears to be
attempting to develop. Moderate to locally fresh SE to E winds
prevail across much of the Gulf N of the trough and the developing
low, and spread westward to near 92W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen between the W end of the trough and SE
Louisiana, while scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 120 nm either side of the trough through the Straits of
Florida. Seas are 3 to 5 ft N of the trough and area of developing
low between 86W and 92W. Light to gentle N to NW winds prevail
elsewhere to the SW of this activity, where isolated moderate
convection dots the waters. Seas across the SW Gulf are 2 ft or
less.

A surface trough or surface low pressure could form over the
south-central or southeastern Gulf tonight or Wed and potentially
linger over the eastern Gulf into Fri. Moderate winds are forecast
in the area, but there is a chance that the trough or low could
produce fresh to strong winds later this week. Enhanced showers
and thunderstorms are also possible across the eastern half of the
Gulf Wed into Fri. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high
pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend,
with occasional pulses of fresh NE winds along the W coast of
Yucatan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper low across the Gulf of Mexico is shifting slowly
eastward, which is promoting a broad upper ridge across the
Caribbean Basin. Active convection extends southward from the
trough across the Straits of Florida and over the Greater Antilles
and the Yucatan Channel, to near 18N. Elsewhere, convection is
occurring over adjacent land areas. At the surface, moderate to
locally fresh SE winds prevail across the Caribbean E of 76W, with
strongest winds across the A-B-C Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in
this area. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are elsewhere across
the basin, except light and variable N of Panama to 12N. Seas are
3 ft or less in these areas.

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades
across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end
of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of
Venezuela and Colombia. Winds will become gentle to moderate from
the south over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun
night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N, from 54W, to a 1010 mb
low pressure center that is near 33N72W. A weak cold front
extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center to the Bahamas near
25N76W, then continues SW as a frontal trough through the Straits
of Florida. Upper level winds are generally W-SW across this area
W of 60W, and are sustaining scattered moderate to strong
convection from along the frontal boundaries northeastward to
31N63W. Gentle N to NE winds are found west of the front, with
seas around 3 ft, while moderate SE to S winds prevail east of
the front to 60W, where seas are 4 to 5 ft.

Farther east, a cold front passes through 31N26W to 28N38W. Widely
scattered light to moderate convection is seen within 90 nm E of
the front and N of 30N. Moderate W-SW winds prevail on both sides
of the front, to the N of 28N, and become fresh within 90 nm
behind the front to the N of 30N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there.
Elsewhere, a weak ridge extends to the S of this front from a
1020 mb high near 27N20W to another 1020 mb high near 24N38W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure near the
ITCZ to the south is producing moderate to very localized fresh
trade winds across the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are only 4 to
6 ft. W of 50W winds become ESE to SE.

A weak pressure pattern will result in quiescent conditions W of
55W through late Thu. A broad area of low pressure will move from
the Gulf of Mexico across Florida and into the western Atlantic
late Fri into Sat. As a result, increasing winds and building seas
are likely over the waters east and south of the Bahamas late Sat
into Sun night. Expect increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the western Atlantic by Thu as an upper
trough moves into the region. Low pressure will slide eastward
along a cold front over the north-central and northeast forecast
waters from Thu night through late Sat. Strong N to NE winds and
building seas are expected offshore northeast Florida Sun and Sun
night behind a new cold front.

$$
Stripling
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