[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis over West Africa
along 12W from 14N southward to the equator, moving W at 15 to 20
kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted ahead
of the wave axis from 03N to 13N between the wave axis and 25W.

The tropical wave that had been analyzed along 22W at 31/0000 UTC
has been removed from the analysis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 41W from 14N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06.5N to 09N between 33W and 45W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W from 11N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 11N between 47W and 54W.

The tropical wave that was analyzed along 62/63W at 31/0000 UTC
has been removed from the analysis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 76/77W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are observed
near and within 150 nm W of the wave axis, mainly south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 03.5N33W to 04.5N39W,
then resumes from 05N42W to 05N51W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is noted near and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between
45W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level low is centered over the central Gulf of
Mexico with a mid to upper-level trough extending south-
southeastward from the SE Louisiana coast to the Yucatan Channel.
A surface trough is present from 26N87W south-southwestward to the
western Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered moderate convection from
26N to 28N between 83.5W and 86W. Cloudiness with isolated showers
are seen elsewhere over the eastern Gulf, to the east of a line
from New Orleans, LA to the western tip of Cuba. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted in between Coatzacoalcos and Paraiso,
along the southern Bay of Campeche coast.

Moderate mainly easterly winds prevail across the central and
north-central Gulf, with seas 2 to 3 ft, shown by a 0900 UTC
satellite altimeter pass. Lighter winds and calmer seas prevail
within 60 nm of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast, as well as over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, a surface trough is expected to take shape
today, and extend from near the Yucatan Peninsula north-
northeastward to the Florida Big Bend by tonight. Surface low
pressure could form along this trough today or Thu and is expected
to meander over the eastern Gulf through Fri. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional
development during this time. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms
are expected across most of the eastern half of the Gulf today
into Fri. Winds associated with this system are forecast to be
fresh over the NE Gulf beginning tonight. The system should move
eastward over Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean during the
weekend. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should
lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional
fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough prevails over the NW Caribbean, while
a mid to upper-level ridge prevails across the remainder of the
basin. As a result, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 17N northward, between 76W and 85W, including over
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and east-central Cuba. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are noted int he Windward Passage, as
well as the SW Caribbean. Isolated showers are noted between 13N
and the coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers are seen near and
just E of Martinique and Dominica. Little to no showers are
observed within the area from 13.5N to 19N between 62W and 75W.
Moderate ESE winds prevail across the eastern and central
Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas, confirmed by a 31/0700 UTC altimeter
pass. from the SE across the majority of the basin with 3-5 ft
seas in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. In the NW
Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE-SSE with 2 to
3 ft seas. Gentle ESE winds are found in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N
coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate
over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night ahead of
a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the Straits of Florida northeastward
to near 31N70W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed from 23N to 28N between 70W and 77W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted elsewhere from 20N to 31N between 65W and 81W.
Convection from 27N to 31N between 56W and 71W is due to a
stationary front that extends from Bermuda to 31N59W. Moderate S
winds prevail between 64W-72W along with 4-5 ft seas. A ridge with
light to gentle winds extends from 30N73W to 31N79W with seas near
3 ft. Gentle SSE winds and 1-3 ft seas are found across the
Bahamas.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N24W to 27N32W. It
continues as a warm front to 31N39W. Fresh SW winds extend within
150 nm ahead of the front. Moderate WNW winds are within 240 nm
behind the front. Seas in the area are 5-7 ft. Another cold front
enters the area from 31N46W to 29N52W to 31N59W. Fresh SW-WSW
winds are within 180 nm SE of the front, mainly E of 47W. The
front is producing seas of 5-6 ft in the area. The pressure
gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure near the
ITCZ is producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds across
the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are 4-6 ft. An area of showers,
not previously mentioned above, is present from 10N to 16N between
52W and 59W.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending from the Straits
of Florida northeastward to 31N70W will be the focal point for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next
couple of days. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form
along this trough Thu night to the southwest of Bermuda, when the
trough is forecast to extend from 30N67W to South Florida. Fresh
to strong winds may cover a large area with this low as it slides
E along a cold front to the S of Bermuda on Fri. At the same time,
another broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico late this week will move E across Florida and into the
western Atlantic over the weekend. As a result, increasing winds
and building seas are likely between Florida and 60W this weekend.
Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected offshore
northeast Florida Sun and Sun night behind a cold front.

$$
Hagen
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