[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A 1006 mb low pressure is centered near 30N79W off northeast
Florida. This low is expected to strengthening more while
meandering off the northeast Florida coast tonight. It will then
gradually lift northward on Sat and move north of 31N Sat evening.
The pressure gradient between the high over the northeastern U.S.
and the low is generating near-gale to gale-force northerly winds
along with 11 to 14 ft seas off the coast of NE Florida. This
trend will continue with seas peaking at 14 to 18 ft through late
Sat afternoon. Additionally, latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer
imagery reveals fresh to strong northerly winds offshore from Cape
Canaveral. Model and buoy data suggest seas are from 10 to 13 ft.
These conditions will persist offshore from Cape Canaveral through
early Sat afternoon. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from
south to north by late Sat afternoon and Sat evening as the low
moves north of the area.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
both issued by the National Hurricane Center for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 12N
southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered
showers are noted from 03N to 07N between 18W and 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 11N southward,
and moving westward around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 32W and 40W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 12N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 06N to 09N between 40W and 49W.

Another tropical wave is just east of the Windward Islands near
60W from near Barbados at 13N southward across the Venezuela-
Guyana border, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is found from the Guyana/Suriname coast
northward to 12N between 55W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast
near Bissau, then extends southwestward to 07N21W. No significant
convection is present near the monsoon trough. An ITCZ continues
from 07N21W to 04N30W, then from 03N34W to beyond the Equator at
39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring
up near the first ITCZ segment from 02N to 06N between 26W and 31W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms at the Caribbean waters adjacent to Costa
Rica, Panama and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The west end of a cold front curves westward across the
southeastern Gulf from the Florida Strait to just north of western
Cuba, then continues west-northwestward as a surface trough to
northeast of Brownsville, Texas. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms along with moderate to fresh NE to ENE
winds, and 2 to 5 ft seas are evident behind the front across the
northeastern and east-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 2 ft are noted offshore from Galveston and Port Arthur,
Texas. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the Gulf States
will maintain moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds at the
northeastern Gulf through Sat morning. Elsewhere, a weak surface
ridge will dominate the region for the next several days,
supporting only gentle to moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward
across Hispaniola to near Jamaica. Converging southerly winds
near the ridge axis are coupling with strong divergent upper-level
flow to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern
Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica and nearby waters. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin.
Moderate to locally fresh ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft
dominate the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds
with 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the central basin. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, a low pressure system north of the Bahamas is
maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean and
tropical N Atlantic tonight, producing light to moderate trades.
Even after the low pressure moves north tomorrow, the
Bermuda/Azores High will shift eastward, continuing to support
tranquil conditions over much the basin for the next several
days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

A cold front curves south-southwestward from a 1006 mb low
pressure off the northeast Florida coast at 30N79W to beyond the
Florida Straits. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring up to 60 nm along either side of the front. A broad
surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 Azores High across
31N52W to beyond Hispaniola. Enhanced by upper-level divergence,
convergent southerly winds near and north of the ridge axis are
inducing scattered moderate convection over the central and
southeast Bahamas, and southwest of Bermuda north of 25N between
65W and 72W. At the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near
33N25W is causing isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 25W
and 27W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Across the western Atlantic outside the Gale Warning area, gentle
to moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
are present north of 20N between 55W and just east of the Bahamas.
Gentle with locally moderate S to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
are found across the Bahamas and Great Bahamas Bank. For the
central and eastern Atlantic, light to gentle with locally
moderate NNE to ENE trades and 2 to 5 ft seas exist north of 20N
between the northwest Africa coast and 55W. In the tropical
Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted from 06N to 20N between the central
Africa coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle NE to SE winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and tstms prevail
across the western Atlantic mainly west of 65W and north of 24N.
The low pressure is forecast to meander off northeast Florida
through Sat morning, then move north of 31N by Sat evening. Gale
force N winds will continue through Sat morning while backing to
the NW. Winds and seas should diminish Sat afternoon through Sun
morning. Afterward, a ridge of high pressure will lead to
quiescent conditions Sun through Wed.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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