[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure is centered
near 30N79W off NE FL. This low is expected to continue
strengthening and meander along the Florida coast tonight before
lifting north of 31N Sat evening. The pressure gradient between
the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low is generating
gale- force winds off the coast of NE Florida. These winds are
expected to persist through Sat evening. Seas are currently in the
8-12 ft range, and will build to 18 ft overnight. Additionally,
fresh to strong winds and 10 to 13 ft seas will spread towards
Cape Canaveral today through Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas
will diminish Sat night into Sun as the low moves north of the
area.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 18W
from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered weak
convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 15W and 22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W from
11N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted near this feature at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from
10N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave's axis N of 07N.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 60W from 13N southward
into Guyana, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 08N to 12N between 54W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 00N40W to
00N50W. All significant convection was identified in the tropical
wave section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the SE Gulf from 25N81W to
24N85W. A surface trough continues across the central Gulf from
24N85W to 26N96W. North of these features winds are moderate from
the NE with 2-4 ft seas. South of these features winds are gentle
from the NW-N with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, building high pressure behind a stationary
front extending from the Florida Keys westward to the central Gulf
will produce fresh NE winds in NE Gulf tonight through Sat
morning. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the next several days, supporting only gentle to moderate
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward
across the Eastern Caribbean and Hispaniola. Converging southerly
winds near the monsoon trough are triggering isolated
thunderstorms along the coast of Colombia. Meanwhile, gentle to
moderate ESE winds and seas to 4 ft are noted in the eastern half
of the basin. Light to gentle winds with seas to 2 ft are noted in
the western half of the basin.

For the forecast, a low pressure system north of the Bahamas is
maintaining a weak pres gradient across the Caribbean and
tropical N Atlantic today, forcing only light to moderate
trades. Even after the low pressure moves north tomorrow, the
Bermuda/Azores High will shift eastward, continuing to support
tranquil conditions over the area for the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N78W to the 1007 mb low
pressure off the coast of NE Florida. A cold front extends south
of the low pressure to the Florida Keys. Numerous moderate to
strong thunderstorms are noted across the western Atlantic off the
Florida coast and the northern Bahamas, N of 22N and W of 68W.
Strong to gale force winds are noted off the NE Florida coast with
seas to 12 ft. Outside of that area, light to gentle winds
prevail across the western Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area
with isolated thunderstorms occurring north of the Leeward
Islands. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail, with locally
fresh winds farther west. Seas range 4-6 ft. High pressure
extends across the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds
and seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pres is forecast to meander
over the W Atlc through Sat morning, then move north of the area
by Sat evening. NE winds have strengthened to gale this afternoon
over the NE Florida offshore waters, and will continue through Sat
morning while backing to NW. Winds and seas should diminish Sat
afternoon through Sun morning. High pressure ridging will lead to
quiescent conditions Sun through Wed.

$$
Flynn
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