[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure is
centered near 29N80W off the coast of Port Canaveral, FL. This
low is expected to continue strengthening and meander along the
northeast Florida coast for the next couple of days. The low
will lift north of 31N Sat night. The pressure gradient between
the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low will bring
gale-force winds offshore northeast Florida this afternoon
through Saturday morning. Seas will build 15 to 19 ft near the
strongest winds during this time. Additionally, fresh to strong
winds and 10 to 13 ft seas will spread towards Cape Canaveral
today through Saturday afternoon.  Winds and seas will diminish
Sat night into Sun as the low moves north of the area.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 18W
from 12N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between
15W and 22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from
11N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted near this feature at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from
10N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave's axis N of 07N.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from 13N southward
into Guyana, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 08N to 13N between 51W and
60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is currently inland Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W. The ITCZ extends westward from 10N19W to 04N29W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 03N31W to 00N45W, and then
resumes W of another tropical wave near 00N46W to 00N49W.
Outside of the convection near tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is noted S of the ITCZ from 05S to 00N
between 34W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low is noted in South Florida with a cold front that
extends from that low along the Florida Keys to the eastern Gulf
of Mexico near 25N88W. A trough stretches from the end of the
cold front to 27N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near SW Florida and the Florida Keys. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are noted in the northern Gulf with the latest ASCAT pass
depicting light to gentle winds across the rest of the Gulf.
Gusty winds are expected near the thunderstorms in the extreme
SE Gulf. Seas range 1 to 3 ft, with 4 ft in the central Gulf.

For the forecast, building high pressure behind a cold front
extending from the Florida Keys westward to the central Gulf
will produce fresh NE winds in NE Gulf today through Sat
morning. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the next several days, supporting only gentle to
moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward
across Hispaniola. Converging southerly winds near the monsoon
trough are triggering isolated thunderstorms along the coast of
Colombia. Due to strong upper-level divergence, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are evident over eastern Cuba and nearby
Caribbean waters.

Meanwhile, gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas to 4 ft are
noted in the eastern half of the basin. Light to gentle winds
with seas to 2 ft are noted in the western half of the basin.

For the forecast, a low pressure system north of the Bahamas is
maintaining a weak pres gradient across the Caribbean and
tropical N Atlantic today, forcing only light to moderate trades.
Even after the low pressure moves north tomorrow, the
Bermuda/Azores High will shift eastward, continuing to support
tranquil conditions over the area for the next several days.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N78W to the 1007 mb low
pressure off the coast of Cape Canaveral. A cold front extends
south of the low pressure along the South Florida coast and over
the Florida Keys. Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are
noted across the western Atlantic off the Florida coast and the
northern Bahamas, N of 22N and W of 65W. Strong to gale force
winds are noted off the NE Florida coast with seas to 12 ft.
Outside of that area, light to gentle winds prevail across the
western Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area
with isolated thunderstorms occurring north of the Leeward
Islands. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail, with locally
fresh winds farther west. Seas range 4-6 ft. High pressure
extends across the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds
and seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and tstms prevail
across the W Atlantic mainly west of 73W. The low pres is forecast
to deepen and drift over the W Atlc tonight before moving north
to near 31N79W by Sat morning, then north of the area by Sat
evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds this morning across the NE
Florida offshore waters will increase to NW to N gales this
afternoon and continue through Sat morning. Winds and seas should
diminish Sat afternoon through Sun morning. High pressure ridging
will lead to quiescent conditions Sun through Tue.

$$
AReinhart
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