[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb frontal low centered near
Lake Okeechobee, Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift
northeastward into the western Atlantic for the next couple of
days, then move north of 31N by Sat night. The pressure gradient
between the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low will
support fresh to strong N-NW to N-NE winds and 10 to 13 ft seas
in large NE swell over the northeast Florida offshore waters
beginning this afternoon, spreading southward to near Cape
Canaveral through Sat afternoon. These winds will reach gale-
force offshore northeast Florida this afternoon through Sat
morning. Seas will build higher and peak at 15 to 19 ft during the
strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish Sat night into Sun
as the low weakens and moves north of the area.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been analyzed in this map, with axis along
15W between 02N-12N. At this time, scattered moderate convection
prevails within this wave mainly E of 20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W from
12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted from 02N to 10N between 22W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from
12N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave's axis.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 12N southward
into Suriname, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 07N to 12N between 49W and
57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches southwestward from inland Senegal across
the coast near the Senegal-Gambia border to 12N18W. The ITCZ
extends westward from 08N17W to 07N24W, then resumes from 01N27W
to 00N42W. The convection in the vicinity of these boundaries is
described in the Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front curves westward from a 1007 mb low near Lake
Okeechobee, Florida across the east-central Gulf to near 26N89W.
A surface trough continues from that point to 28N93W. Another
trough extends from the low to western Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE
to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted behind the cold
front across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE to E
winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail N
of 25N and E of 90W through Sat. Weak high pressure will dominate
the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to
moderate winds. Slight seas will build to moderate through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward
across Hispaniola to just east of Nicaragua. Convergent southerly
winds near monsoon trough are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the south-central basin, just north of
Colombia and Venezuela. Aided by strong upper-level divergence,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident over eastern Cuba
and nearby Caribbean waters.

Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted
for the eastern and north-central basin. NE to E gentle winds
with 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the south-central and southwestern
basin. Light to gentle WSW to W winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to
maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western
Caribbean through today, supporting light to gentle winds. The
Azores High will continue to support moderate E-SE trade winds
through the weekend over the E Caribbean, diminishing slightly
into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from off the Georgia-
South Carolina coast near 31N78W to a 1007 mb low near Lake
Okeechobee, Florida. Scattered moderate convection prevails across
the western Atlantic mainly W of 65W. At the eastern Atlantic, an
upper-level low near 30N30W is generating scattered moderate
convection north of 27N between 26W and 32W.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted
off the northeast Florida coast north of 28N between 80W and the
Georgia-northern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident from 20N to 31N between 73W and
80W. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
noted north of 20N between 31W and 73W, and from 06N to 20N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE to E
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and tstms prevail
across the western Atlantic, mainly west of 65W. The low pres is
forecast to strengthen and drift over the W Atlc through today,
then move N to near 31N79W by Sat morning before moving north of
the area by Sat evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and large
NE swell will prevail across the NE Florida offshore waters today,
spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral through Sat before the
low moves N of the area. N to NE gales are expected offshore
northern Florida this afternoon through Sat morning. High pressure
ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun and Mon.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net