[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260614
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A 1007 mb frontal low near Lake Okeechobee, Florida is forecast to
strengthen and drift north-northeastward into the western Atlantic
for the next couple of days, then move north of 31N by Sat night.
The pressure gradient between the high over the northeastern U.S.
and the low itself will support fresh to strong N-NW to N-NE winds
and 11 to 14 ft seas in large NE swell over the northeast Florida
offshore waters beginning early Fri morning, spreading southward
to near Cape Canaveral Fri afternoon through late Sat afternoon.
These winds will reach gale-force offshore northeast Florida late
Fri morning through Sat morning. Seas will build higher and peak
at 15 to 19 ft during the strongest winds. Winds and seas will
diminish Sat night into Sun as the low weakens and moves north of
the area.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at website
https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php
both issued by National Hurricane Center for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 12N southward,
and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 04N to 08N between 24W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 12N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is found from 06N to 09N between 36W and 43W.

A third tropical wave is near 56W from 12N southward into
Suriname, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection present from 06N to 12N between 50W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches southwestward from inland Senegal across
the coast near the Senegal-Gambia border to 11N18W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up south of the
trough from 03N to 08N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and
18W. An ITCZ extends westward from 07N18W to 07N24W, then from
01N26W to beyond the Equator at 30W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted near the first ITCZ segment from 06N to 08N between 18W
and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest cold front curves westward from a 1007 mb low near Lake
Okeechobee, Florida across the east-central Gulf to just south of
New Orleans, Louisiana. A surface trough runs southward from the
low across the Florida Straits to western Cuba. Isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 80 nm north of the
front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present
across the Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist behind the cold front across the
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE to E
winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail N of 27N and E of 90W through Sat, then
gradually subside Sat night through Sun. A weak surface ridge
will dominate elsewhere in the Gulf for the next several days,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends west-southwestward
across Hispaniola to just east of Nicaragua. Convergent southerly
winds near the ridge axis are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the south-central basin, just north of
Colombia and Venezuela. Aided by strong upper-level divergence,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident over eastern
Cuba and nearby Caribbean waters.

Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted
for the eastern and north-central basin. NE to E gentle winds
with 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the south-central and southwestern
basin. Light to gentle WSW to W winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to
maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western
basin through Fri, supporting light to gentle winds. The Atlantic
Ridge will support moderate E to SE trade winds through the
weekend over the eastern Caribbean, diminishing slightly early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends south-southwestward from off the
Georgia-South Carolina coast across 31N78W to a 1007 mb low near
Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the
front north of 27N between 78W and the Georgia/northeastern
Florida coast. Farther southeast and east, convergent southerly
winds are coupling with strong divergent winds aloft to trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 25N between 64W
and the Bahamas, and north of 25N between 66W and 75W. At the
eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 32N29W is generating
scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 26W and 32W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen
off the northeast Florida coast north of 29N between 80W and the
Georgia-northern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident from 20N to 29N between 68W and
80W/Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at
5 to 7 ft are found north of 20N between 60W and 68W/80W, and from
09N to 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
NE to E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present from 05N to 20N
between the central Africa coast and 50W, and from north of 20N
between 35W and 60W. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
dominate near the Canary Islands north of 20N between the
northwest Africa coast and 35W. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh monsoonal S to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and tstms prevail
across the western Atlantic, mainly west of 65W. The low pres is
forecast to strengthen and drift over the W Atlc through Fri, then
move north to near 31N79W by Sat afternoon before moving north of
31N by Sat night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and large NE
swell will prevail across the northeast Florida offshore waters
tonight, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral Fri through
Sat. N to NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida Fri
through Sat morning. A surface ridge will lead to quiescent
conditions Sun and Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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