[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low just inland southwest
Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the western
Atlantic through Sat. The system will then move north of
the area by Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to
strong N to NE winds and large NE swell over the NE Florida
offshore waters beginning this evening, spreading southward to
near Cape Canaveral Fri through Sat before the low lifts north of
the area. N to NE gale-force winds are expected offshore northern
Florida Fri through Sat morning. Seas will build to a peak of 15
ft by Fri afternoon and to around 19 ft Fri night as these winds
counter the Gulf Stream. Winds and seas will diminish late Sat
into Sun as the low moves north of the area.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from
01N to 13N. It is drifting westward. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is seen from 04N to 07N between 22W-27W.
Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere from 01N to 08N between
20W-28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from
01N to 13N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant
convection is observed at this time.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W
south of 13N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is inland over the northern
sections of Suriname and French Guiana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Sierra Leone
and Guinea near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ is interrupted by
tropical waves and continues in segments from 08N16W to 06N23W,
from 05N26W to 03N35W and from 03N42W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 01N50W. All significant convection is described in the
tropical wave section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb low is just inland the southwest Florida coast near
26N81W. A forming cold front extends west from the low to
25N85W and northwestward to just south of southeastern Louisiana.
A broad upper-level trough is situated over the eastern Gulf
as seen in water vapor imagery. Plenty of instability is in
play over this part of the Gulf leading to scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf north of
the cold front, while isolated showers and thunderstorms are
south of the cold front. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are
north of the cold front along with seas of 3-5 ft. The remainder
of the Gulf is dominated by light to gentle winds and relatively
low seas of 1-2 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail
north N of 27N and E of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak
high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several
days, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build
to moderate through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern is evident across most of the basin. This
supports light to gentle trade winds along with seas 3 ft or
less. Slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft are north of 15N between
64W-76W, and from 11N to 15N between 64W-76W. Seas of 3-5 ft are
in the Gulf of Honduras.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and
just inland the coast of Colombia between 71W-75W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are just offshore the coast of Cuba
and between Cuba and Jamaica. Isolated showers are possible over
the remainder of the western Caribbean and over the eastern part
of the sea.

For the forecast, elongated troughing north of the Caribbean
will help to maintain the present weak pres gradient and
associated winds through Fri. The Azores High will support
moderate east-southeast trade winds through the weekend over the
eastern Caribbean, diminishing slightly early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
developing gale-force low in the western Atlantic.

A 1007 mb low pressure is centered just inland southwest Florida
near 26N81W. A stationary front extends from the low
northeastward to 29N79W and to beyond the area at 31N78W.
Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft east of the Gulf
of Mexico upper-level trough providing support and ventilation
for scattered showers and thunderstorms between a line from
31N67W to 25N69W to 21N76W and Florida. Similar activity is along
and just inland most of the island of Cuba. As high pressure
builds north of the area, winds are beginning to increase along
the NE Florida coast with buoys now reporting a fresh NE breeze
and 5-7 ft seas. Near the surface trough, winds are gentle to
moderate with 4-6 ft seas. East of 67W, winds increase to a fresh
S-SE breeze with 5-7 ft seas.

Subtropical high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin
between 35W-55W. The related gradient is allowing for moderate
trade winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. East of 35W, trade winds
are light to gentle north of 20N and moderate to fresh south of
20N. Seas are 4-6 ft over the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough is analyzed along a position from 30N40W to
22N32W. No convection is occurring with this trough, however,
an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is present to
its northeast from 26N to north of the area near 33N and between
27W-33W. This activity is due to an upper-level low seen on
water vapor imagery to be near 33N30W. The low is dropping south.

For the forecast W of 55W, the 1007 mb low pressure that is
inland southwest Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift
over the western Atlantic, then lift north to near 31N79W by
Sat afternoon before moving north of the area by Sat night. The
pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern U.S.
and the low will support the development of fresh to strong N to
NE winds and large NE swell over the NE Florida offshore waters
beginning this evening, spreading southward to near Cape
Canaveral Fri through Sat before the low moves north of the
area. N to NE gale-force winds are expected offshore northern
Florida Fri through Sat morning. High pressure ridging will lead
to relatively quiet conditions Sun through Mon.

$$
Aguirre
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