[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: The 1007 mb low pressure system near SW
coast of Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the
western Atlantic through Sat. The system will then move north
through Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong NE
winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters
beginning Thu night, spreading southward to near Daytona Beach Fri
through Sat. NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida
beginning on Fri afternoon and will continue through the night.
Seas will build to near 15 ft Fri night. Winds and seas will
diminish late Sat into Sun as the low moves north of the area.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has extends along 23W, from 12N
to 01N. This wave is nearly staionary. Scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 09N between
09W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 37W, from 12N to
01N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed
at this time.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 12N
to 01N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 07N between 50W and 54W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Sierra Leone
and Guinea near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ is interuppted by
tropical waves and continues in segments from 08N16W to 06N21W,
from 05N24W to 02N34W, and from 01N39W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 01N50W. All significant convection is described in the
tropical wave section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb low pressure is centered over the SW coast of Florida
near 25N81W. A surface trough extends west from this feature to
26N93W. Isolated weak convection is observed from 24N to 30N
between 81W and 92W. North of the trough, winds are moderate to
fresh from the NE with 2-4 ft seas. The remainder of the Gulf is
dominated by light to gentle winds and 1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail N
of 27N and E of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high
pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days,
supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to
moderate through Sat. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W
remains in a state of unrest and continues to erupt and produce
volcanic ash, however the current ash plume is confined inland.
Mariners should still exercise caution in the southern Bay of
Campeche in case additional, and more northward plumes develop. If
mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you
are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather
Service by calling 305-229-4424.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from 23N82W to
17N86W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 16N to 20N
between 73W and 85W, including the Windward Passage. The
subtropical ridge extends into the NE Caribbean, supporting
moderate E-SE winds in the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.
Moderate winds are also noted near the Windward Passage and south
of Cuba. Winds are gentle elsewhere with 1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to
maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western
Caribbean today, supporting light to gentle winds. The Azores
High will support moderate E-SE trade winds through the weekend
over the E Caribbean, diminishing slightly into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
developing gale force low in the western Atlantic.

A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near SW Florida. A surface
trough extends from the low near 25N81W to 31N77W. Abundant
tropical moisture and divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms between 64W and Florida and north of the
Greater Antilles. As high pressure builds north of the area, winds
are beginning to increase along the NE Florida coast with buoys
now reporting a fresh NE breeze and 5-7 ft seas. Near the surface
trough, winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. East of 67W,
winds increase to a fresh S-SE breeze with 5-7 ft seas.

Subtropical high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin.
Between 55W and 35W, winds are moderate from the E with 4-6 ft
seas. East of 35W, winds are light to gentle north of 20N and
moderate to fresh south of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft throughout the
eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the 1007 mb low pres is forecast to
strengthen and drift over the W Atlc then move N through Sat
night. The pres gradient between high pres over the eastern U.S.
and the low will support the development of fresh to strong N to
NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters
beginning this evening, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral
Fri through Sat before the low moves N of the area. N to NE gales
are expected offshore northern Florida Fri through Fri night.
High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun and
Mon.

$$
Flynn
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