[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: The 1007 mb low pressure system near SW
coast of Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the
western Atlantic through Sat. The system will then move north
through Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong NE
winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters
beginning Thu night, spreading southward to near Daytona Beach Fri
through Sat. NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida
beginning on Fri evening and continue through the night. Seas will
build to near 15 ft Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish late
Sat into Sun as the low moves north of the area.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W,
south of 12N, moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 11N and east of 28W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W,
south of 12N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of
12N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 09N13W to 05N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to
05N33W, then from 04N35W to 04N49W, and then from 05N50W to
08N59W. All significant convection is described in the tropical
wave section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information about
the low currently centered over the SW Gulf.

The combination of the low pressure near the SW coast of Florida,
ample moisture, and divergence aloft is enhancing scattered
showers over the eastern half of the basin. A weak high pressure
regime dominates the rest of the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are noted N of 28N and E of 90W. Similar N-NE winds
are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in the regions
described are 2-3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic
winds and slight seas prevail. Haze is noted over most of the
central and western Gulf sections due to agricultural fires in
southern Mexico and in Central America.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds over the NE gulf
waters will prevail through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high
pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days,
supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to
moderate through Sat. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W
remains in a state of unrest and continues to erupt and produce
volcanic ash, however the current ash plume is confined inland.
Mariners should still exercise caution in the southern Bay of
Campeche in case additional, and more northward plumes develop. If
mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you
are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather
Service by calling 305-229-4424.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the Windward Passage and off northern Colombia, mainly dry
conditions prevail across the basin. The subtropical ridge
extends weakly into the basin, supporting moderate easterly winds
in the eastern Caribbean and primarily light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean
and 1-2 ft elsewhere. Haze is present over the northwestern
Caribbean due to agricultural fires in Central America.

For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to
maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western
Caribbean today, supporting light to gentle winds. A trough will
prevail across the NW Caribbean through the end of the week,
leading to a slight increase in winds and seas. Over the E
Caribbean, the Azores High will support gentle to moderate E-SE
trade winds through the weekend, diminishing slightly into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
developing gale force low in the western Atlantic.

A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near SW Florida. A surface
trough extends from the low near 25N81W to 28N76W. Abundant
tropical moisture and divergence aloft results in a broad area of
scattered showers and thunderstorms between 63W and Florida and
north of the Greater Antilles. A recent scatterometer pass depict
fresh to strong winds associated with the strongest storms.
Farther east, a surface trough extends from 29N33W to 19N31W with
no significant convection at this time.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive
subtropical ridge positioned well north of the Azores. Moderate
to fresh E-SE winds are found between mainly 35W and 67W. Wave
heights in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pres is forecast to strengthen
and drift over the W Atlc then move N through Sat night. The pres
gradient between high pres over the eastern U.S. and the low will
support fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE
Florida offshore waters beginning tonight, spreading southward to
near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat before the low moves N of the
area. NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida Fri night.

$$
ERA
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