[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The 1008 mb low pressure system near southern Florida is forecast
to strengthen and drift over the western Atlantic. The system
will then move north through Sat night. The pressure gradient
between the high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the low will
support fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE
Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night, spreading southward
to near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat. NE gales are possible
offshore northern Florida Fri night. Seas will build to near 14 ft
Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish late Sat into Sun as the
low moves north of the area.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south
of 12N. It is moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 09N and east of
27W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W,
south of 12N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers
are seen near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of
12N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection
is noted near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W
to 06N32W, then from 06N35W to 07N48W and then from 06N50W to
07N59W. All significant convection is described in the tropical
wave section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The stationary front that extended across the Gulf of Mexico has
dissipated based on the 0300 UTC surface map. However, the
combination of a low pressure near southern Florida, ample
moisture and divergence aloft sustain isolated to scattered
showers over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, especially north of a
line from western Cuba to SW Louisiana.

A weak high pressure regime dominates the rest of the Gulf
waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found north
of 26N and east of 90W. Similar N-NE winds are noted in the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in the regions described are 2-3 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas
prevail. Haze is seen over most of the central and western Gulf
sections due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in
Central America.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail E
of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will
generally dominate the basin through the next several days,
supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to
moderate through Sat. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W
remains in a state of unrest and continues to erupt and produce
volcanic ash, however the current ash plume is confined inland and
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mariners should still exercise
caution in the southern Bay of Campeche in case additional, and
more northward plumes develop. If mariners encounter volcanic ash
or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the
observation to the National Weather Service by calling
305-229-4424.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
Windward Passage and off northern Colombia, mainly dry conditions
prevail across the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge extends
weakly into the basin, supporting moderate easterly winds in the
eastern Caribbean and primarily light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and 1-2 ft
elsewhere. Haze is present over the northwestern Caribbean due to
agricultural fires in Central America.

For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to
maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western
Caribbean through Thu, supporting light to gentle winds. A pre-
frontal trough will move into the NW Caribbean by Thu night, where
it will stall and linger through the end of the week, leading to
a slight increase in winds and seas there. Over the E Caribbean,
the Azores High will support gentle to moderate E-SE trade winds
through Sat, locally fresh offshore northern Venezuela, then will
diminish slightly for the end of the weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
developing gale force low in the western Atlantic.

A 1008 mb low pressure near southern Florida, abundant tropical moisture
and divergence aloft results in a large area of scattered showers
and thunderstorms, mainly between 63W and Florida and north of
the Greater Antilles. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show
fresh to strong winds associated with the strongest storms.
Farther east, a surface trough extends from 19N30W to 30N34W and a
few showers are noted within 120 nm of the trough axis.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive
subtropical ridge positioned well north of the Azores. Moderate
to fresh E-SE winds are found between mainly 35W and 67W. Wave
heights in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, 1008 mb low pres is centered near
26N79W, with trough extending SW to the Florida Straits. An
elongated trough extends from 31N69W to the SE Bahamas, with a
stationary front from 31N74W to near Melbourne, Florida. Fresh to
strong SE winds, rough seas, with scattered showers and tstms will
prevail E of the low/troughs tonight. The low pres is forecast to
strengthen and drift over the W Atlc then move N through Sat
night. The pres gradient between high pres over the eastern U.S.
and the low will support fresh to strong NE winds and large NE
swell across the NE Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night,
spreading southward to near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat before
the low moves N of the area. NE gales are possible offshore
northern Florida Fri night.

$$
DELGADO
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