[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure is centered
near 30N79W off northeast Florida. This low is expected to
gradually lift northward today and move north of 31N this evening.
The pressure gradient between the high over the northeastern U.S.
and the low is generating gale-force northerly winds along with
12 to 18 ft seas off the coast of NE Florida. Additionally, latest
ASCAT satellite scatterometer imagery reveals fresh to strong
northerly winds offshore from Cape Canaveral. Model and buoy data
suggest seas are from 10 to 14 ft. These conditions will persist
offshore from Cape Canaveral through this afternoon. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish from south to north by this evening
as the low moves north of the area.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 20W
from 12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
showers are noted from 03N to 07N between 19W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 33W from
11N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 31W and 38W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 48W from
12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present S of 08N between 44W and 52W.

Another tropical wave extends its axis along 61W at 13N southward
across the Venezuela-Guyana border, moving westward at 5 to 10
kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 07N21W. THe
ITCZ continues from that point to 04N32W. Scattered moderate
convection is flaring up near the ITCZ segment from 02N to 07N
between 26W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The west end of a cold front curves westward across the
southeastern Gulf from the Florida Strait to just north of western
Cuba, then continues west-northwestward as a surface trough to
near 24N93W. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds, and 2 to 5 ft
seas are evident behind the front across the northeastern and
east-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft
are noted offshore from Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, building high pressure will produce fresh NE winds
in NE Gulf through this afternoon. Elsewhere, weak high pressure
will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting
only gentle to moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of the Atlantic ridge extends southwestward
across Hispaniola to near Jamaica. Converging southerly winds near
the ridge axis are coupling with divergent upper-level flow to
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Windward
Passage and western Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh ESE
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the eastern basin. Gentle to
moderate ENE to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the
central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the low pressure system north of the Bahamas is
maintaining a weak pres gradient across the Caribbean and
tropical N Atlantic today, forcing light to moderate trades. As
the low moves N away from the area through Sun, the
Bermuda/Azores High will shift eastward, continuing to support
tranquil conditions over the area for the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

A cold front curves south-southwestward from a 1005 mb low
pressure off the northeast Florida coast at 30N79W to beyond the
Florida Straits. Scattered showers are occurring E of the front
between 70W-76W. A broad surface ridge prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near
33N47W.

Across the western Atlantic outside the Gale Warning area,
moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are present
north of 20N between 60W and just east of the Bahamas. Gentle to
moderate S to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found across the
Bahamas and Great Bahamas Bank. For the central and eastern
Atlantic, light to gentle NNE to ENE trades and 2 to 5 ft seas
exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 55W. In
the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas
of 4 to 6 ft are noted from 06N to 20N between the central Africa
coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle NE to SE winds and 3 to
5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the gale-low is forecast to move north
of the area by this evening. Gale force NE winds will continue
through this morning while backing to NW. Winds and seas should
diminish by this afternoon through Sun morning. High pressure
ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun through Wed.

$$
ERA
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