[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south
of 12N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is observed from 06.5N to 10N and between 24W
and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W, south of
11N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is present from 00N to 09N between 40W
and 48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N15W and continues to 05.5N23W. The ITCZ extends from
05.5N23W to 06.5N29W, then from 06N32W to 06.5N44W, and finally
resumes from 07N47W to 07.5N58W. Other than convection noted
above with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 10W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Dispersing volcanic ash from recent eruptions of Popocatepetl
Volcano in Mexico has shifted southeastward and dispersed over
land, and is not currently detected over the waters of the Gulf.

A stationary front extends along 29N this morning, from the
Florida Big Bend to the coastal waters of SW Louisiana. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of the
coasts near the front. Other widely scattered moderate convection
is farther SE, from 26N to 28N and E of 87W to the Florida west
coast. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence
of a weak 1014 mb high pressure centered over the NW Gulf.
Surface observations and overnight scatterometer satellite data
indicate light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin,
except for moderate to fresh N-NE winds off the northern and
western coast of Yucatan. The satellite-derived winds and recent
buoy observations also show that the strongest convection in the
NE Gulf has produced brief periods of fresh to strong NE to E
winds, and seas briefly to 5 ft. Wave heights, otherwise, are 2
ft or less in the Gulf except around 3 ft near the NW Yucatan.

For the forecast, the stalled front across the N Gulf will move S
through the eastern Gulf this afternoon through Fri, followed by
moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds E of 90W through Sat
morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will generally dominate the
basin through the week, yielding light to gentle winds through
tonight, and gentle to moderate thereafter. Seas are presently
slight, but will build with the increasing winds behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor satellite imagery depicts an upper level low north of
the Lesser Antilles with a broad trough extending S-SW to the
coast of Venezuela. This is generating a cluster of scattered showers
and moderate thunderstorms affecting the NE Caribbean N of 17N and
adjacent islands. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is under fairly
tranquil weather conditions, except for scattered moderate
convection across the entrance to the Windward Passage. Satellite
imagery also show hazy skies over parts of the NW Caribbean,
associated with the ash sent into the atmosphere in recent days by
the volcano Popocatepetl in central Mexico.

High pressure centered across the NE Atlantic extends a broad
ridge SW to the Atlantic along about 68W. This pattern is
producing moderate easterly trade winds in the SE Caribbean,
while light to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere. Seas of 3-4 ft
are evident in the central and eastern Caribbean, while 1-2 ft
seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the elongated low pressure across the Atlantic will
help to maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and
western Caribbean through Thu, supporting light to gentle winds. A
pre-frontal trough will move into the NW Caribbean Thu night,
where it will stall and linger through the end of the week,
leading to a slight increase in winds and seas there. Over the E
Caribbean, the ridge associated with the Azores High will support
gentle to moderate E-SE trade winds through the forecast period,
locally fresh offshore northern Venezuela. Dispersing volcanic ash
from recent eruptions of Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico have
shifted across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the NW Caribbean W
of 83W, and are expected to linger through this morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1007 mb low pressure center continues to move N-NE this morning,
and is located near 29.5N70.5W, with a trough trailing SW to near
24N74W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
east of the trough to 62W and north of 25N. Overnight
scatterometer satellite data showed moderate to locally strong
southerly winds north of 25N and between the surface trough and
62W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as reflected in the latest
altimeter satellite data. Farther west, a stationary front is NW
of the low, and extends from 31N73W to north Florida along 29N.
Scattered moderate convection is present across the Straits of
Florida, and from the NW Bahamas to offshore of the coast of
Georgia.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned in the far NE Atlantic that extends
southwestward to 68W. An upper level low north of the Leewards
continues to enhance convection over the islands and nearby
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds over most of the central and eastern Atlantic, with
the highest winds occurring well east of the Leewards. Seas in the
waters described are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low center near 29.5N70.5W will
move N-NE and just N of the area by midday, where it will begin
to interact with a weak cold front approaching from the NW, then
move well NE and exit the region tonight. Fresh to strong SE
winds, rough seas, with scattered showers and tstms will prevail E
of the low and trough through this evening. A broad middle to
upper level trough across the SE U.S will dig SE across the
Florida Peninsula over the next couple of days. This will help to
generate new surface low pressure over central Florida late
today, then move N-NE off the peninsula Thu, and across the far
NW waters through Sat. Active weather will accompany this
developing feature W of 70W. The pres gradient between high pres
over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to locally
strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore
waters beginning Thu night and spreading southward to near Daytona
Beach Fri through Sat, before the low moves N of the area. NE
gales are possible offshore of Jacksonville, Florida Fri night.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net