[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240500
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, south of
13N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 14N and between
26W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of 12N.
It is moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is present east of the wave to 36W and south of
13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W
to 07N29W, then from 07N31W to 07N43W and finally resumes from
06N46W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted south of 12N and between 20W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Ashfall Advisory for the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front straddles the northern Gulf coast producing a
few showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of the coast.
The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a
weak 1014 mb high pressure. Surface observations and a recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate light to gentle anticyclonic
winds across the basin, except for moderate to occasionally fresh
N-NE winds off the northern and western coast of Yucatan. The
satellite-derived winds also show that the strongest convection in
the NE Gulf is producing strong-force winds. Wave heights of 2 ft
or less are found in the Gulf.

For the forecast, a modest cold front will move S through the eastern
Gulf Wed through Fri, followed by moderate to locally fresh N to
NE winds E of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high
pressure will generally dominate the basin through the week,
yielding light to gentle winds through tonight, and gentle to
moderate thereafter. Seas are presently slight, but will build
with the increasing winds behind the front. Popocatepetl Volcano
in Mexico near 19N99W has been active and continues to erupt.
Volcanic ash has moved E to ESE away from the volcano and over the
Bay of Campeche to the Yucatan coast, S of 21N. Visibility may be
restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall through at least
tonight. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter
volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to
report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling
305-229-4424.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor satellite imagery depict an upper level low north of
the Leeward Islands generating a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms affecting the NE Caribbean and nearby islands. The
rest of the Caribbean Sea is under fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Satellite imagery also show hazy skies over parts of the
NW Caribbean associated with the ash sent into the atmosphere by
the volcano Popocatepetl in central Mexico.

A weak high pressure regime allows for moderate easterly trade
winds in the SE Caribbean, while light to moderate breezes prevail
elsewhere. Seas of 2-4 ft are evident in the central and eastern
Caribbean, while 1-2 ft seas are prevalent in the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, elongated low pres N of the basin along 71W-72W will
help to maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and
western Caribbean through Thu, supporting light to gentle winds. A
pre-frontal trough will move into the NW Caribbean by Thu night
where it will stall and linger through the end of the week,
leading to a slight increase in winds and seas there. Over the E
Caribbean, the Azores High will support gentle to moderate E-SE
trade winds through the forecast period, locally fresh offshore
northern Venezuela. Expect scattered showers and tstms across the
waters E of 65W through tonight. Dispersing volcanic ash from
recent eruptions of Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico have shifted
across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the NW Caribbean W of 83W,
and are expected to linger through morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1007 mb low pressure system is located near 29N71W. The low is
along a trough that extends from near Bermuda to the low, and
continues to the eastern Bahamas. Numerous to scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen east of the trough to 62W and
north of 24N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate
to locally strong southerly winds north of 25N and between the
surface trough and 62W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as reflected
in the latest altimeter satellite pass. Farther west, a stationary
front is draped along 30N from 75W to NE Florida. Scattered
moderate convection is present within 120 nm of eastern Florida,
especially off SE Florida.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned in the far NE Atlantic that extends
southwestward to the Leeward Islands. An upper level low north of
the Leewards is enhancing convection over the islands and nearby
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds over most of the central and eastern Atlantic, with
the highest winds occurring well east of the Leewards. Seas in the
waters described are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, elongated troughing extends from 24N73W
to low pres 1008 mb 28N71W to 31N70W. The low center will move
N-NE and reach just N of the area midday Wed where it will
interact with a weak cold front approaching from the NW, then move
well NE and exit the region Wed night. Fresh to strong SE winds,
rough seas, with scattered showers and tstms will prevail E of the
low and trough through Wed. New low pres is forecast to develop
over central Florida late Wed, move N-NE off the peninsula Thu,
and across the far NW waters through Sat. The pres gradient
between high pres over the eastern U.S. and the low will support
fresh to locally strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE
Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night through Sat offshore
Jacksonville, Florida Fri night.

$$
DELGADO
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