[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241640
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis in the eastern
Atlantic, extending along 22W from 11N to 01N, moving west at 5
kt. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed
from 01N to 05N between 13W and 22W, and from 04N to 08N between
20W and 25W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 31W from 12N
to 01N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 10N between 30W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 12N to
01N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed
from the equator to 06N between 40W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
09N16W. The ITCZ is segmented around the tropical waves, extending
from 09N16W to 05N20W, from 05N23W to 06N30W, from 06N33W to
06N45W, and from 06N49W to 07N58W. All significant convection is
described in the tropical wave section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the NE Gulf from 29N83W to
29N88W where it continues as a cold front across the NW Gulf to
28N97W near Corpus Christi. A weak low pressure center has
developed south of the front near 27N86W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 26N to 30N between 83W and 93W. North
of the front, winds are gentle to moderate from the N-NE with 1-3 ft
seas. South of the front, winds are light to gentle with 1-2 ft
seas.

For the forecast, a front across the northern Gulf will slowly
move S this afternoon through Fri, followed by moderate to locally
fresh N to NE winds E of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak
high pressure will generally dominate the basin through the week,
yielding light to gentle winds through early afternoon, and
gentle to moderate thereafter. Seas are presently slight, but will
build with the increasing winds behind the front. Popocatepetl
Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W remains in a state of unrest and
continues to erupt and produce volcanic ash, however the current
ash plume is confined from the coast of the Bay of Campeche inland
and southward. Mariners should exercise caution in the southern
Bay of Campeche. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating
volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to
the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An abundance of tropical moisture combined with an upper level
trough is supporting scattered moderate convection south of Cuba
and in the Windward Passage from 18N to 20N between 73W and 78W.
The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate E-SE
winds and 2-4 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean. This gradient is
disrupted by a large scale pressure trough across the Bahamas. As
a result, winds are light to gentle with 1-2 ft seas in the
central and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to
maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western
Caribbean through Thu, supporting mainly light to gentle winds. A
pre-frontal trough will move into the NW Caribbean by Thu night,
where it will stall and linger through the end of the week,
leading to a slight increase in winds and seas there. Over the E
Caribbean, the Azores High will support gentle to moderate E-SE
trade winds through Sat, locally fresh offshore northern
Venezuela, then will diminish slightly for the end of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1007 mb low pressure center located near 30N69W continues to
move NE today. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 28N
to 31N between 66W and 69W. An associated surface trough extends
from the low center to the central Bahamas near 25N76W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 24N to 26N between 76W and
82W, including the Florida Straits. NW of this feature, a
stationary front extends from 31N73W to 29N81W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 28N to 30N between 77W and 80W. NW of
the stationary boundary, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE
with 5-7 ft seas. SE of the stationary front and NW of the
surface trough, winds are gentle to moderate from the N-NW with
4-6 ft seas. E of the surface trough, winds are fresh to strong
from the SE-S with 7-9 ft seas.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge centered in the NE Atlantic that extends
southwestward. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds and 5-7 ft seas over the majority of the central and
eastern Atlantic south of 20N. North of 20N and east of 40W, winds
are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, The low will move N-NE and just N of
the area this afternoon where it will interact with a front
approaching from the NW, then move well NE and completely exit the
region tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds, rough seas, with
scattered showers and tstms will prevail E of the low and trough
this afternoon. New low pres is forecast to develop over central
Florida later today, move N-NE off the peninsula Thu and Thu
night, then across the far NW waters through Sat night. The pres
gradient between high pres over the eastern U.S. and the low will
support fresh to locally strong NE winds and large NE swell across
the NE Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night and spreading
southward to near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat before the low
moves N of the area. NE gales are possible offshore of
Jacksonville, Florida Fri night.

$$
Flynn
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