[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Typhoon Mawar (02W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
933 AM ChST Tue May 23 2023


...CAT 3 TYPHOON MAWAR INTENSIFYING AS IT CONTINUES TOWARDS GUAM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
None.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people in Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning continues for Guam and Rota. Damaging winds of
39 mph are expected late this evening. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph
or greater expected by Wednesday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Saipan and Tinian.
Damaging winds of 39 mph or greater expected by late tonight.
A Typhoon Watch continues for the Saipan and Tinian. Typhoon
force winds of 74 mph or greater are possible sometime on Wednesday.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam and all the Northern Marianas.
Please listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be in effect
for your area.

.STORM INFORMATION...
At 856 am ChST...the eye of Typhoon Mawar (02W) was located near
latitude 10.9N...longitude 146.9E based on radar. This was about
220 miles southeast of Guam. Storm motion was north and storm
intensity was 125 mph sustained winds. A passage near or over Guam is
now looking likely.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Mawar is intensifying on approach to Guam. The latest forecast track
has Mawar as a Category 4 typhoon very near or over Guam during the
day on Wednesday. The triple threat of cat 4 typhoon force winds,
torrential rains and life-threatening storm surge are all expected
for Guam and Rota. Large storm surge and coastal impacts are likely
to occur just north of the center. If the center of Mawar passes just
south of Guam, significant coastal impacts would spread to Merizo,
Inarajan and vulnerable coastal stretches southeastern Guam.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Now is the time to rush to completion preparations for the
protection of life and property. Stay calm and keep informed.
Comply with any evacuation orders that are issued for your area.
If your home is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a surge
zone or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated
shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or
friends outside of evacuation zones.

For interests at ports...docks...and marinas...urgently complete
prescribed preparations according to your emergency operations
plan for tropical cyclones. If you live on a boat...make final
preparations for securing your craft before leaving it.

Closely monitor NOAA weather radio, NWS forecasts or other local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

For additional precautionary and preparedness information...Please
refer to the detailed recommendations relative to your location as
further described by your local National Weather Service office and
local emergency management.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 3 PM...or sooner if conditions warrant.

GUZ001-MPZ001-230800-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-Rota-
933 AM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
Mawar now a category 3 typhoon.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay calm and keep informed. Make the final preparations to protect
life and property. Rush to completion the hardening of your home or
business by closing shutters and bracing garage doors.

If you do not live in a concrete structure, or you live in a surge
zone or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated
shelter or ride out Mawar in the sturdy home of family or friends
outside of evacuation zones. Comply with any evacuation orders that
are issued.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

If staying in a home, turn the refrigerator to maximum cold and
keep it closed. Turn off propane tanks and unplug small
appliances. Fill the bathtub with water in case the tap water
becomes unavailable after the storm. This is for cleaning and
flushing purposes. Do not drink it.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/hurricane conditions...
Tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive tonight. Typhoon
conditions are expected Wednesday morning into midday.

...Winds...
Damaging winds are expected to arrive tonight.

The latest forecast is for typhoon force winds to move in on
Wednesday with sustained winds of 140 miles per hour and much higher
gusts. Exposed, higher terrain may see higher winds. Wind direction
is highly dependent on the exact track of the eye. A direct passage
over the island would lead to major typhoon force winds from a mix of
directions. A passage just south of Guam would favor major typhoon
force north winds shifting east and then southeast to south. A
passage just north of Guam would favor major typhoon force winds from
the northeast to west to southwest to west. Typhoon force winds will
extend outward from the center roughly 30 miles.

Mawar is likely to bring considerable damage to buildings and homes
of light material. Non-reinforced concrete walls could be blown
down. Light cars could be moved or overturned. High paneled vehicles
could be overturned. Wooden power poles could be broken. Many
secondary power lines could be downed. All poorly constructed signs
could be blown down with some steel signs being damaged. Damage to
roof, window, and doors of well-built wooden and metal residences and
utility buildings could occur. Major damage to shrubbery and trees
is likely with snapped or uprooted trees and blocked roads.
Defoliation of vegetation is likely, perhaps 40-60% defoliation.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 6 to 10 feet above the normal high tide is expected
as Mawar moves overhead on Wednesday. Surge may reach to between 10
and 15 feet for the most vulnerable storm surge prone areas. This 10
to 15 foot surge would be realized for coastal areas just north of
Mawar's center. Mawar's angle of approach could lead to considerable
coastal impacts and surge for Merizo, Inarajan and Ipan area. Surge
may reach 4 feet along western shores if a passage over or north of
Guam occurs. Surge of 1 to 3 feet is also possible inside Apra Harbor.

Severe coastal erosion is likely. Large boats could be torn from
moorings, especially waters exposed to the south and east. This
includes the southern bay by Songsong on Rota and inner channel
system near Merizo on Guam. Moderate to extensive damage is possible.
A passage over or just north of Guam would lead to greater impacts for
western shores.

Surf will build sharply today along south and east facing reefs with
dangerous surf of 20 to 25 feet late this afternoon into Wednesday.
Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs by Thursday
or Friday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam and Rota. See latest forecasts
for latest information. Listen for possible flood warnings for your
location and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop late tonight through the next
few days. Torrential rain is likely as Mawar passes near or overhead.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 15 inches are possible with locally higher
amounts. Landslides are a distinct possibility for central to
southern Guam along with streams overflowing their banks. A slowing
of forward speed could lead to much higher rainfall totals. Monitor
conditions for possible flood advisories or warnings.

$$

MPZ002-003-230800-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
933 AM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
Mawar now a category 3 typhoon. Confidence has increased in a passage
closer to Guam but a slight northward jog could still bring typhoon
conditions to Tinian and Saipan.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Now is the time to rush to completion preparations for the
protection of life and property. Stay calm and keep informed. Comply
with any evacuation orders. If your home is vulnerable to high
winds, evacuate to a designated shelter or ride out the storm in the
sturdy home of family or friends outside of evacuation zones.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with
shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects
indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. Do this
today.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/hurricane conditions...
The most likely onset of tropical storm conditions is tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Typhoon force winds are still possible
sometime on Wednesday with a slight northward jog of Mawar.

...Winds...
East to northeast winds will increase through the day, becoming
damaging tonight in the 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph or so.
Higher winds are likely for higher terrain such as Capitol Hill.
Winds are forecast to increase further Wednesday as they shift to an
easterly then southeasterly direction. Typhoon conditions are still
possible for Wednesday, but this hinges on a northward drift with
Mawar.

Residents should move loose items indoors, such as garbage cans and
outdoor furniture, as they will be blown around. Isolated power
outages are possible. Corrugated metal and plywood could be stripped
from poorly constructed homes. Wooden power poles could be tilted.
Poorly constructed signs could be damaged. Banana, papaya and fleshy
crops could see damage.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 1 to 3 ft above the normal high tide is along south
and eastern shores. Coastal erosion is possible but not expected to
be significant. There could be minor to moderate pier damage for
coastal areas exposed to the south and east. Large boats could be
torn from moorings for coastal areas exposed to southeast. Moderate
damage is possible.

Surf will build sharply today along south and east facing reefs with
dangerous surf of 10 to 20 feet late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs by Thursday
or Friday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian. Listen for possible
flood warnings...and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is possible tonight into Wednesday with rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches through Thursday night. If Mawar shifts a
bit farther north, rainfall amounts could rise considerable to
between 6 and 10 inches.

$$

BPB
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