[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTPQ81 PGUM 230521
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Typhoon Mawar (02W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
321 PM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...CAT 4 TYPHOON MAWAR INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES GUAM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
Mawar now a category 4 typhoon.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people in Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Guam is likely
to see the brunt of the impacts from Mawar.

.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning continues for Guam and Rota. Damaging winds of
39 mph are expected late this evening. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph
or greater expected by Wednesday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Saipan and Tinian.
Damaging winds of 39 mph or greater expected by late tonight.
A Typhoon Watch continues for the Saipan and Tinian. Typhoon
force winds of 74 mph or greater are possible sometime on Wednesday.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam and all the Northern Marianas.
Please listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be in effect
for your area.

.STORM INFORMATION...
At 1 PM ChST...the eye of Typhoon Mawar (02W) was located near
Latitude 11.5N...longitude 146.7E. This was about 190 miles southeast
of Guam. Storm motion was wobbling towards the north to northwest at
roughly 8 mph. Mawar's intensity was 130 mph sustained winds.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Mawar continues to intensify on approach to Guam. Passage very near
or directly over Guam as a Category 4 typhoon on Wednesday is looking
increasingly likely. The triple threat of cat 4 typhoon force winds,
torrential rains and life-threatening storm surge are all expected
for Guam. Large storm surge and coastal impacts are likely to occur,
particularly for coastal areas just north of the eye of Mawar on the
east to southeast sides of Guam.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This afternoon is the time to rush to completion preparations for the
protection of life and property. Stay calm and keep informed.
Comply with any evacuation orders that are issued for your area.
If your home is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a surge
zone or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated
shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy, fully reinforced
concrete home of family or friends outside of evacuation zones.

For interests at ports...docks...and marinas...urgently complete
prescribed preparations according to your emergency operations
plan for tropical cyclones. If you live on a boat...make final
preparations for securing your craft before leaving it.

During the storm...stay inside and away from windows. Do not venture
outside when high winds are occurring or during temporary lulls as
flying debris can easily...and suddenly...cause serious injury. If
the eye passes over you, extreme winds will suddenly cease. This is
not the end of the typhoon--REMAIN IN SHELTER as extreme winds will
rapidly resume.

Have a well-charged cell phone nearby...keeping network communications
as open as possible for emergencies.

Once conditions have improved, remain in shelter until the all-clear
is announced from government officials.

Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for the latest forecasts.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 9 PM...or sooner if conditions warrant.

GUZ001-231400-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-
321 PM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
Mawar now a category 4 typhoon.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay calm and keep informed. Make the final preparations to protect
life and property. Rush to completion the hardening of your home or
business by closing shutters and bracing any garage doors.

Residents should remain in shelter within sturdy concrete homes with
concrete roofs. If you do not live in a concrete structure, or you
live in a surge zone or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a
designated shelter or ride out Mawar in the sturdy home of family or
friends outside of evacuation zones. Do so this afternoon. Comply
with any evacuation orders that are issued.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

If staying in a home, turn the refrigerator to maximum cold and keep
it closed. Turn off propane tanks and unplug small appliances. Fill
the bathtub with water in case the tap water becomes unavailable after
the storm. This is for cleaning/flushing purposes. Do not drink it.

During the storm...stay inside and away from windows in a building
with concrete walls and a concrete roof. Residents must avoid power
lines as they will be tilted or broken. Stay away from the ocean due
to storm surge. Large ships should be secured as they will be torn
from moorings. Do not venture outside when high winds are occurring
or during temporary lulls as flying debris can easily...and
suddenly...cause serious injury. If the eye passes overhead, do not
go outside. Extreme winds will rapidly return.

Once conditions have improved on Thursday, remain in shelter until
the all-clear is given by government officials.

&&

...Probability of typhoon conditions...
Tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive tonight. Typhoon
conditions are expected to begin Wednesday morning into midday.
Intense eyewall winds may arrive around noontime.

...Winds...
Damaging winds (sustained winds >40 mph) are expected to arrive this
evening, possibly late evening.

The latest forecast is for typhoon force winds (winds 74 mph or
greater) to move in Wednesday morning increasing through the morning
to around a peak of 145 mph. Gusts could reach to around 170 mph.
Exposed, higher terrain of the island is likely to experience higher
winds. Wind direction at any point on Guam is highly dependent on the
exact track of the eye. A direct passage over the island would lead
to major typhoon force winds from a mix of directions. A passage just
south of Guam would favor major typhoon force north to northeast
winds shifting east and then southeast to south. A passage just north
of Guam would favor major typhoon force winds from the northeast to
west, then southwest to west. Typhoon force winds will extend outward
from the center roughly 30 miles.

Mawar is likely to bring considerable damage to buildings and homes
of light material. Extensive damage to non-concrete roof. Non-
reinforced concrete walls could be blown down. Severe damage to
well-built wooden and metal structures possible. Some reinforced
hollow-spun concrete power poles and many reinforced wooden power
poles could be downed. Solar panels could be damaged. Large
projectiles and debris are possible. Most small and medium sized
steel frame signs could be bent over or damaged. Some fuel storage
tanks could rupture. Cars and high paneled vehicles could be
overturned. Major damage to shrubbery and trees is likely with
snapped or uprooted trees and blocked roads. Defoliation of
vegetation is likely, perhaps 50-70% defoliation.

Electricity and water may be unavailable for days and perhaps weeks
after the storm passes. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted.
Fallen trees may cut off residential areas for days to weeks.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 6 to 10 feet above the normal high tide is expected
as Mawar moves overhead on Wednesday. Surge may reach to between 10
and 15 feet above normal high tide for the most vulnerable storm
surge prone areas. This 10 to 15 foot surge would most likely be
realized for coastal areas just north of Mawar's center. Mawar's
angle of approach could lead to considerable coastal impacts and
surge for Malesso, Inalahan, Ipan and Pago Bay, especially if the
center of Mawar scrapes by just south of Guam. Coastal roads of Guam
around Inalahan and Malesso may be impassable due to lofted beach
debris and boulders if this southern track is realized. Surge of 1
to 3 feet is possible within Apra Harbor. Surge may reach 4 feet
along western shores if Mawar passes over or north of Guam.

Severe coastal erosion is likely. Large boats could be torn from
moorings. Moderate to extensive damage is possible. A passage over
or just north of Guam would lead to greater impacts for western
coastlines.

Surf will build sharply this afternoon along south and east facing
reefs with dangerous surf of 20 to 25 feet late this afternoon into
Wednesday. Rough surf may develop along west facing reefs as early
as Wednesday night, with hazardous surf by late Thursday or Friday.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam. See latest forecasts for latest
information. Listen for possible flood warnings for your location
and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop tonight through the next few
days. Torrential rain is likely as Mawar passes near or overhead.
Rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches are possible with locally higher
amounts of around 20 inches. Landslides are a distinct possibility
for central to southern Guam along with overflowing streams and
rivers. A slowing of forward speed could lead to higher rainfall
totals. Monitor conditions for possible flood advisories or warnings.

$$

MPZ001-231400-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Rota-
321 PM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay calm and keep informed. Make the final preparations to protect
life and property. Rush to completion the hardening of your home or
business by closing shutters.

Residents should remain in shelter within sturdy concrete homes with
concrete roofs. If you do not live in a concrete structure, evacuate
to a designated shelter or ride out Mawar in the sturdy home of
family or friends outside of evacuation zones. Do so this afternoon.
Comply with any evacuation orders that are issued.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

If staying in a home, turn the refrigerator to maximum cold and keep
it closed. Turn off propane tanks and unplug small appliances. Fill
the bathtub with water in case the tap water becomes unavailable after
the storm. This is for cleaning/flushing purposes. Do not drink it.

During the storm...stay inside and away from windows in a building
with concrete walls and a concrete roof. Stay away from the ocean
due to high surf, strong rip currents and the possibility of storm
surge. Large ships should be secured as they will be torn from
moorings. Do not venture outside when high winds are occurring or
during temporary lulls as flying debris can easily...and
suddenly...cause serious injury.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/typhoon conditions...
Tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive late tonight.
Typhoon conditions are a distinct possibility around noontime
Wednesday.

...Winds...
Damaging winds (sustained winds >40 mph) are expected to arrive late
tonight into early Wednesday.

There is still a distinct possibility for typhoon force winds. The
most likely timeframe for typhoon force winds would be midday to
afternoon Wednesday. Wind direction is still likely to be northeast,
shifting east to southeast.

Corrugated metal and plywood may be stripped from poorly constructed
buildings and become airborne. Wooden power poles which are rotten or
not reinforced could be tilted or even broken. Poorly constructed
signs could become damaged. Banana, papaya and other similar crops
could topple.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 2 to 5 feet above the normal high tide is expected as
Mawar passes closer to Guam on Wednesday. Higher surge values around
5 feet would be realized if Mawar passes closer to northern Guam.
Large boats could be torn from moorings. Moderate coastal erosion and
reef damage is likely, particularly along southeast to eastern reefs.
Moderate damage is possible.

Surf will build sharply this afternoon along south and east facing
reefs with dangerous surf of 15 to 25 feet this afternoon into
Wednesday. Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs by
Friday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Rota. See latest forecasts for latest
information. Listen for possible flood warnings for your location
and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop tonight through the next few
days. Torrential rain is quite possible as Mawar passes to the south
closer to Guam. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible with
locally higher amounts. A slowing of forward speed and drift farther
north could lead to higher rainfall totals. Monitor conditions for
possible flood advisories or warnings.

$$

MPZ002-003-231400-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
321 PM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
Mawar now a category 4 typhoon. Confidence has increased in a
passage closer to Guam but a slight northward jog may still bring
typhoon conditions to Tinian and Saipan.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Now is the time to rush to completion preparations for the
protection of life and property. Stay calm and keep informed. Comply
with any evacuation orders. If your home is vulnerable to high
winds, evacuate to a designated shelter or ride out the storm in the
sturdy home of family or friends outside of evacuation zones.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with
shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects
indoors. Brace all exterior doors. Do this today.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/typhoon conditions...
The most likely onset of tropical storm conditions is Wednesday
morning. Typhoon force winds are still possible the second half of
Wednesday if there is a slight northward jog of Mawar.

...Winds...
East to northeast winds will increase tonight, becoming damaging
Wednesday morning in the 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph or so.
Higher winds are likely for higher terrain such as Capitol Hill.
Winds are forecast to increase further Wednesday afternoon as they
shift to an easterly then southeasterly direction. Typhoon conditions
are still possible for Wednesday afternoon, but this hinges on a
northward drift with Mawar.

Residents should move loose items indoors, such as garbage cans and
outdoor furniture, as they will be blown around. Isolated power
outages are possible. Corrugated metal and plywood could be stripped
from poorly constructed homes. Wooden power poles could be tilted.
Poorly constructed signs could be damaged. Banana, papaya and fleshy
crops could see damage.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 1 to 3 ft above the normal high tide is along south
and eastern shores. Coastal erosion is possible but not expected to
be significant. There could be minor to moderate pier damage for
coastal areas exposed to the south and east. Large boats could be
torn from moorings. Moderate damage is possible.

Surf will build sharply today along south and east facing reefs with
dangerous surf of 8 to 15 feet building to 15 to to 20 feet
early Wednesday. Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing
reefs Friday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian. Listen for possible
flood warnings...and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is possible tonight through Wednesday night with
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches. If Mawar shifts a bit farther
north, rainfall amounts could rise to between 5 and 8 inches.

$$

BPB
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