[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTPQ81 PGUM 221709
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Typhoon Mawar (02W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
309 AM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...TYPHOON MAWAR CROSSES LATITUDE 10N AND CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL
APPROACH TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
None.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and
recommended actions for people in Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam and Rota. Damaging winds of
39 mph are expected late this evening. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph
or greater expected by Wednesday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Saipan and Tinian.
Damaging winds of 39 mph or greater expected by late tonight.

A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian. Typhoon
force winds of 74 mph or greater are possible sometime Wednesday.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
Please listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be in effect
for your area.

.STORM INFORMATION...
At 10 PM ChST...the center of Typhoon Mawar (02W) was located near
latitude 10.3N...longitude 146.8E. This was about 260 miles
south-southeast of Guam. Storm motion was north-northwest at 6 miles
per hour and storm intensity was 105 mph. A sharp westward bend in
the track is expected to occur as it nears Guam and Rota. When this
westward bend occurs will really determine which islands receive the
brunt of the impacts from Mawar. There is still some uncertainty with
the overall track as Mawar approaches the Marianas.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track. The
aforementioned westward bend will be crucial to determining the
overall impacts for all the Marianas Islands. An earlier bend would
confine the greatest impacts to Guam while a delayed bend would bring
the possibility of typhoon force winds reaching up to Saipan and
Tinian. At this time, the most likely scenario is a passage near or
over Guam.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Now is the time to rush to completion preparations for the
protection of life and property. Evacuate if directed to do so by
local officials...or if your home is vulnerable to high winds or
flooding.

For interests at ports...docks...and marinas...urgently complete
prescribed preparations according to your emergency operations
plan for tropical cyclones. If you live on a boat...make final
preparations for securing your craft before leaving it.

Regarding any coastal waters under a warning...small craft should
remain in port and well secured.

Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to
the forecast.

For additional precautionary and preparedness information...
Please refer to the detailed recommendations relative to your
location as further described by your local National Weather
Service office and local emergency management.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 9 AM...or sooner if conditions warrant.

GUZ001-MPZ001-230115-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-Rota-
309 AM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
None.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Now is the time to rush to completion preparations for the
protection of life and property. Stay calm and keep informed.
Comply with any evacuation orders that are issued for your area.
If your home is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a surge
zone or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated
shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or
friends outside of evacuation zones.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with
shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects
indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. Do this
as early as possible.

Coastal erosion is likely and there could be moderate pier damage.
Large boats could be torn from moorings. Moderate to extensive damage
is possible.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/typhoon conditions...
The onset of tropical storm conditions could start later today. The
most likely onset of tropical storm conditions is this evening. The
onset of typhoon conditions could start late tonight to Wednesday
morning.

...Winds...
Winds will steadily increase later today with damaging winds by
this evening and destructive winds overnight. The latest forecast
is for typhoon force winds to move in on Wednesday with sustained
winds of 120 miles per hour and gusts to 140 miles per hour. Wind
direction for any given location is highly dependent on where the
center tracks. Mawar is expected to track near or over Guam, so winds
may very well be variable while Rota is most likely to see a wind
direction from the northeast shifting east and then southeast.
However, recent tracks has suggested a slight shift south of Guam,
so there is a good chance for a similar shift in the wind direction.

Mawar may bring considerable damage to light material buildings.
Wooden power poles that are rotten or damaged could be broken and
other wooden poles could be tilted. Some secondary power lines could
be downed. Damage to wooden and tin roofs likely. Major damage to
shrubbery and trees could occur with some defoliation.

...Storm surge and surf information...
Storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide is expected as
Mawar moves overhead on Wednesday. Surge may reach up to 8 feet just
north of the center of the system. Surge may reach 2 to 4 feet along
western shores. Coastal erosion is likely and there could be
moderate pier damage. Large boats could be torn from moorings.
Moderate to extensive damage is possible.

Surf will build sharply the next day or two along south and east
facing reefs with dangerous surf of 15 to 25 feet late this afternoon
into Wednesday. Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing
reefs by Thursday or Friday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine
Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam and Rota. See latest forecasts
for latest information. Listen for possible flood warnings for your
location and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop late tonight through the next
few days. Torrential rain is likely as Mawar passes near or overhead.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 15 inches are possible with locally higher
amounts. A slowing of forward speed could lead to much higher
rainfall totals. Monitor conditions for possible flood advisories or
warnings.

$$

MPZ002-003-230115-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
309 AM ChST Tue May 23 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
None.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Now is the time to rush to completion preparations for the
protection of life and property. Stay calm and keep informed. Comply
with any evacuation orders that are issued for your area. If your
home is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a surge zone or any
location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated shelter or ride
out the storm in the sturdy home of family or friends outside of
evacuation zones.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with
shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects
indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. Do this
as early as possible.

Final actions to protect life and property should be completed
before conditions deteriorate. Cover windows and doors with shutters
or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose outdoor objects
inside. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors.

Comply with any evacuation orders issued for your area. If your home
is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a surge zone or any
location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated shelter or ride
out the storm in the sturdy home of family or friends outside of
evacuation zones.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/hurricane conditions...
The onset of tropical storm conditions could start as early as this
evening. The most likely onset of tropical storm conditions is
tonight. Although typhoon force winds are not expected, a delay in
the westward track of Mawar could bring typhoon force winds to Saipan
and Tinian. This will be monitored closely.

...Winds...
East to northeast winds will increase through the day, becoming
damaging by evening in the 30 to 40 mph range with higher gusts.
Winds are forecast to increase further Tuesday night and Wednesday
as they shift to an easterly then southeasterly direction.

Residents should move loose items indoors, such as garbage cans and
outdoor furniture, as they will be blown around. Isolated power
outages are possible. Corrugated metal and plywood could be stripped
from poorly constructed homes. Wooden power poles could be tilted.
Poorly constructed signs could be damaged. Banana, papaya and fleshy
crops could see damage.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 1 to 3 ft above the normal high tide is expected as
Mawar passes to the south, mainly along south and eastern shores.
Coastal erosion is possible. There could be moderate pier damage.
Large boats could be torn from moorings. Moderate to extensive damage
is possible.

Surf will build sharply the next day or two along south and east
facing reefs with dangerous surf of 10 to 16 feet late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs by
Thursday or Friday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian. Listen for
possible flood warnings for your location...and be ready to act if
flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is possible tonight into Wednesday with rainfall
amounts of 4 to 8 inches through Thursday. If Mawar shifts a bit
farther north, rainfall amounts could rise considerable to between
6 and 10 inches.

$$

IC
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