[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A deepening
upper-level trough across the Caribbean is forecast to interact
with the Colombian/Panamanian low and the monsoon trough to bring
enhanced moisture to western sections of Colombia and eastern
Panama over the weekend. This pattern will lead to the potential
for heavy rainfall across this area beginning tonight and lasting
through early Mon. These rains could lead to moderate flooding in
the area. Please read the latest forecast products from your local
or national meteorological service for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W south of
12N moving W at 5-10 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends to 08N21W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 05N26W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection covers the waters from
03N to 10N E of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
02N to 07N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge prevails over the Gulf waters, with a 1017 mb high
center located near 26N93W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-2
ft, prevail across the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico into early next week, inducing light to gentle winds and
slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of
the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it. By
the start of next week, a weak trough will sag into the northern
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the south central
Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere over the north central
and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted over the
western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the south
central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north central Caribbean, 4-5 ft
over the eastern Caribbean, and 1-2 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient across the basin
will lead to continued moderate trades and slight to moderate seas
over the east and central Caribbean, except fresh to locally
strong trades S of 14N through early Sat. Light to gentle winds
and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Winds will then
weaken across the basin Sun through Tue as an inverted surface
trough develops N of the area along about 70W-71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed E of Florida from 29N81W to 25N80W.
A second trough is noted from 31N59W to 24N63W. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across most of the discussion waters,
except W of 70W where light to gentle winds are noted. Seas of 6-8
ft prevail, except S of 28N and W of 60W where seas are in the
3-4 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure ridge is
centered on the Azores high along 25W and extends SW to near a
surface trough along 61W. The trough will weaken and shift NE
through Sat and allow high pressure across the NW Atlantic to
build modestly southward across the regional waters through the
weekend. An inverted trough is expected to develop along 71W Sun
and drift NE early next week. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected near and E of the trough through Mon. Moderate NE and E
swell will mix across the regional waters Sat night through Mon.

$$
AL
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