[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A deepening
upper-level trough across the Caribbean is forecast to interact
with the Colombian/Panamanian low and the monsoon trough to bring
enhanced moisture to western sections of Colombia and eastern
Panama over the weekend. This pattern will lead to the potential
for heavy rainfall across this area beginning tonight and lasting
through early Mon. These rains could lead to moderate flooding in
the area. Please read the latest forecast products from your local
or national meteorological service for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W south of
12N moving W at 5-10 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends to 10N21W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 04.5N26W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near
02.5N51W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted N of
01N between 03W and 08W likely associated with the next tropical
wave. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection covers the
waters from 03N to 10N E of 17W to the coast of W Africa. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01.5N to 06N
between 30W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, with a 1016
mb high center located 27N94W. A surface trough is analyzed over
the western Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is producing a weak
pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico with light and
variable winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. N winds are locally moderate
within 60 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a
surface trough centered inland. Seas there are 3 ft. Hazy skies
prevail across most of the Bay of Campeche due to smoke from
ongoing agricultural fires across Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico into early next week, inducing light to gentle winds and
slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of
the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh winds across the south-
central Caribbean, particularly from the ABC Islands to along the
coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 3 to 6
ft in these areas, with locally 7 to 8 ft seas offshore of Colombia.
Elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean gentle to moderate
trades prevail. In the NW Caribbean, winds are light with seas of
1-3 ft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted
across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers.
The San Juan Doppler Radar confirms the presence of this shower
activity over Puerto Rico and regional waters.

For the forecast, a very modest pressure gradient across the
basin will lead to continued moderate trades and slight to
moderate seas over the east and central Caribbean, except fresh to
locally strong trades S of 14N through early Sat. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Winds
will then weaken across the basin Sun through Tue as an inverted
surface trough develops N of the area along about 70W-71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed E of Florida and runs from 31N79W
to 25N80W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the
trough. An area of showers and thunderstorms is also affecting
most of the Bahamas and regional waters. This weather is supported
by an upper-level trough with axis just E of Florida. A cold front
is moving across N Florida. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are
ahead of the trough, higher within the convective activity. Farther
E, another surface trough extends from 30N60W to 23N63W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of this trough covering
mainly the waters N of 22N E of the trough to about 55W. A ridge
is between the above mentioned troughs producing fresh easterly
winds N of 30N between 60W and 68W based on scatterometer data.
High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters,
anchored by a 1038 mb Azores High. Moderate to locally fresh
trades prevail north of 20N and east of 50W, with moderate trades
south of 20N across the basin. Seas are 6-9 ft N of 20N and E of
50W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere E of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge is
centered on the Azores high along 25W and extends SW to near a
surface trough along 61W. The trough will weaken and shift NE
through Sat and allow high pressure across the NW Atlantic to
build modestly southward across the regional waters through the
weekend. An inverted trough is expected to develop along 71W Sun
and drift NE early next week. Active weather is expected near and
E of the trough through Mon. Moderate NE and E swell will mix
across the regional waters Sat night through Mon.

$$
GR
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