[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from
the equator to 11N. The tropical wave has moved very little
overnight. Scattered moderate convection is observed by
satellite from 05.5N to 11N between 19W and 25W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 04.5N25W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W.
Numerous strong convection across western Africa extends to 120 nm
offshore of the coast between 07W and 14W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection associated with the ITCZ is from 02N to 06N
between 26W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The latest scatterometer pass from 0210 UTC and recent surface
observations indicate a 1015 mb high pressure is centered near
27N83.5W, just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A second 1015 mb high
is across the NW Gulf near 27N94W. The associated weak ridging is
separated by a surface trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula
to near 27.5N87W. This pattern is producing a weak pressure
gradient across the Gulf of Mexico and quiescent conditions of
light and variable winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. N winds are locally
moderate within 60 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead
of a surface trough centered inland. Seas there are 3 ft. Hazy
skies prevail across most of the Bay of Campeche due to smoke from
ongoing agricultural fires across Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico through the weekend, inducing light to gentle winds and
slight seas. A diurnal trough will develop each late afternoon
across the Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore each night W of
the Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Overnight scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate trades
prevailing across the eastern, central, and southwest Caribbean,
and fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean from the A-B-C
Islands to along the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3-6 ft in these
areas, with locally 7-8 ft seas offshore of Colombia. In the NW
Caribbean, winds are light with seas of 1-3 ft. No significant
convection is noted across the basin this morning.

For the forecast, A very modest pressure gradient across the basin
will lead to continued moderate trades and slight to moderate
seas over the east and central Caribbean, except fresh to locally
strong trades S of 14N through early Sat. Light to gentle winds
and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Winds will then
weaken across the basin Sun through Tue as an inverted surface
trough develops N of the area along about 70W-71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is just N of the area this morning from 33N60W
to new 1013 mb low pressure along the Georgia coast near
31.5N80W. Strong to gale force easterly winds are within 240 nm N
of the front this morning, and a Gale Warning is in effect just
north of 31N. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the NWS Ocean Prediction Center for more information. South of the
front and low, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail W of 60W.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NE swell to the N of 30N, and generally 2-3
ft elsewhere W of 60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen across most of the waters of the Bahamas
between 73W and 79W. Short lines of similar convection is also
occurring from 27N to offshore of North Carolina, between 77W and
80W. This weather is supported by an upper level trough across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that is moving eastward into the Florida
Peninsula this morning. This weather will shift mostly N of the
area by afternoon.

A surface trough extends from 24N62W to 31N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is across the waters from 23N to beyond 31N, between
the trough and 56W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters, anchored by a 1038 mb Azores High. Moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail north of 20N and east of 50W, with
moderate trades south of 20N across the basin. Seas are 6-9 ft N
of 20N and E of 50W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere E of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the NW Atlantic
and to the N of the front will build modestly southward across
the regional waters through the weekend as the surface trough
passing through 60W this morning shifts NE and weakens. The upper
trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move into the W
Atlantic over the weekend and dig southward into eastern Cuba and
Hispaniola, and induce very active weather there. An associated
inverted trough is expected to develop from Hispaniola northward
along 71W Sun, and drift N-NE into early next week. Active
weather is expected near and E of the trough through Mon.Fresh to
locally strong SE to S winds are expected between the trough and
55W Mon through Tue. Moderate NE and E swell will mix across the
regional waters Sat night through Mon.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net