[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in W Colombia and E Panama: A deepening
upper-level trough across the Caribbean is forecast to interact
with the Colombian/Panamanian low and the monsoon trough to
bring enhanced moisture to western sections of Colombia and
eastern Panama over the weekend. This pattern will lead to the
potential for heavy rainfall across this area now through early
Mon. These rains could lead to moderate flooding. Please refer
to the latest forecast products from your local or national
meteorological service for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 26W from 01N
to 12N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 04N20W then to
04N31W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 04N31W to the coast of Brazil
near 02N50W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of both
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A diffuse pressure gradient and weak ridge prevail over the Gulf
waters, with a 1017 mb high center located near 28N93W. A weak
surface trough is draped across the north-central Gulf. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf waters.
N winds are locally moderate within 60 nm of the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, west of a surface trough centered inland.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico into early next week, inducing light to gentle winds and
slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of
the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it.
By the start of next week, a weak trough will sag into the
northern Gulf, and gradually produce gentle to moderate N to NE
winds across the entire basin by Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trades in the south-central Caribbean have increased to fresh to
strong speeds, in response to the slight tightening of the
pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic High and
Colombian/Panamanian Low. Seas in this region are 6-7 ft. Trades
are moderate in the E Caribbean, with seas of 3-6 ft. In the W
Caribbean, trades are light to gentle with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will
lead to continued moderate trades and slight to moderate seas
over the east and central Caribbean, except fresh to locally
strong trades S of 14N through early Sat. Light to gentle winds
and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Winds will
then weaken across the basin Sun through Tue as an inverted
surface trough develops N of the area along about 70W-71W.
Active weather is expected across the Caribbean E of 65W Mon
through Tue morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the far NW waters, a weak stationary front lingers along 31N,
associated with a low pressure centered off the coast of North
Carolina. A surface trough analyzed from Cape Canaveral across
the Florida Peninsula through Lake Okeechobee to the Everglades
is producing some inland showers. A surface trough is analyzed
from 22N61W to 31N58W, with scattered showers in the vicinity.
Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 27N between 70W and
76W, enhanced by upper level divergence to the east of an upper
level trough axis over the Bahamas. Elsewhere across the
tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades are in force. Seas
of 6-8 ft prevail, except west of 60W where seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough along 60W will weaken
and shift NE through Sat and allow high pressure across the NW
Atlantic to build modestly southward across the regional waters
through the weekend. An inverted trough is expected to develop
along 71W Sun and drift NE early next week. Scattered to locally
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected near and E of
the trough through Tue. Moderate NE and E swell will mix across
the regional waters Sat night through Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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