[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 14W/15W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 02N to 05N between 10W and 16W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland. The ITCZ is along 05N22W 01N38W
01N46W 06N53W 06N57W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 02N to 07N between 10W and 50W, and from
12N southward between 50W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in the central Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
24N to 29N between 87W and 92W.

A surface is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from the Florida
Panhandle to the Deep South of Texas. Rainshowers are possible
near the surface trough.

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers NE Mexico
into the SW Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
moderate to strong is inland in Mexico from 22N to 27N between the
coast and 101W.

Hazy conditions are in parts of the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, due to volcanic ash from the Popocatepetl volcano that is
in Mexico.

Gentle to moderate NE winds cover the area. The sea heights range
from 1 foot to 2 feet the coastal waters of Louisiana
southeastward, and from 3 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

A ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters
during the next several days producing mainly light to gentle
winds and slight seas. Gentle to moderate westerly winds are
expected over the northern Gulf Wed and Wed night as a cold front
approaches the area. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast
at night near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sat
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 500 mb shows a NW-to-SE oriented trough from the
Yucatan Channel toward northern Colombia. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong, in general, is from 15N northward from
70W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong,
specifically, is in the coastal waters on the Caribbean Sea side
of SE Cuba, and in parts of Hispaniola and the surrounding waters
of the Windward Passage.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to western Panama,
and beyond 09N84W in Costa Rica. Precipitation: numerous strong is
in Costa Rica and in parts of western Panama.

Gentle NE to E trade winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet
to 4 feet are in the NW and SE parts of the area. Moderate to
fresh E to ESE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to
7 feet are in the rest of the area.

Fresh E winds over the south central Caribbean will decrease to
moderate Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and
slight to moderate seas are expected over the east and central
Caribbean while light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail
in the NW Caribbean. Winds are forecast to regenerate to moderate
to fresh speeds across the south-central Caribbean by Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An east-to-west oriented surface trough is along 30N58W 28N70W,
27N79W just to the east of the coast of Florida. Precipitation:
generally, broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 50W
westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N
to 26N between 62W and 66W. The southern end of a cold front is
reaching 31N65W.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 36N30W. A surface ridge
passes through 31N40W, to 28N49W 26N66W, toward the Bahamas.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds, and 3 to 5
ft seas are from the central Bahamas northward beyond 31N and
west of 70W. Light to gentle winds, and seas that range from 3
feet to 4 feet are up to 200 nm along either side of the surface
ridge. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are
evident from 05N to 18N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles/
southeast Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE
trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found north of 22N between the
Morrocco- Sahara coast and 42W. Farther south, gentle to moderate
NNE to NE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas dominate from 09N to 22N
between the central Africa coast and 35W. Light to gentle NE to SE
and monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed northerly and
southerly swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

A weak cold front will move across the north waters through Tue
and exit the area by Tue night. A surface trough near the Bahamas
will dissipate by Tue night as high pressure builds across the
area from the E bringing gentle to moderate southerly winds. A
weak low pressure system is forecast to develop along a frontal
boundary just off SE US by late Wed with little impact in winds
and seas.

$$
MT/df
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