[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152247
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of this hurricane season is analyzed with
axis along 14W from 02N-12N. Coupling with modest convergent
monsoonal winds, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 00N to 12N and E of 20W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W to 10N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate convection over Panama and Costa Rica, also
reaching the S-central Caribbean mainly S of 10N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches northwestward from the Bay of Campeche to
northeastern Mexico. Aided by an upper-level trough in the
vicinity, scattered moderate convection prevails N of 23N between
93W-97W. To the E, another surface trough is analyzed along 88W
from 25N-28N. A frontal system extends across the northern
Florida, enhancing scattered moderate convection over the NE gulf
waters N of 29N and E of 86W. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds
and seas at 3 to 4 ft are found over the western Gulf. Otherwise,
a weak surface ridge extending southward from a 1022 mb high near
the Mississippi-Alabama border is supporting light to gentle winds
with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida
Straits.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters during the next several
days producing mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas.
Gentle to moderate westerly winds are expected over the NE Gulf
Wed and Wed night as a cold front approaches to the area. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds are forecast at night near and to the NW
of the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri night, then fresh winds may
occur by Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends along 80W from 16N-21N enhancing
scattered moderate convection over the NW Caribbean. Gentle NE to
E trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the northwestern
and southeastern basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE trades and 4 to
7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate
seas are expected over the east and central Caribbean while
light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW
Caribbean. Winds are forecast to increase to moderate to fresh
speeds across the south-central Caribbean by Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough along 75W is coupling with divergent winds
aloft to generate scattered moderate convection just east of the
Bahamas from 23N to 29N between 66W and 72W. To the NE, a pre-
frontal trough extends from 31N61W to 29N66W.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted near the surface trough from the central Bahamas
northward to beyond 31N and west of 70W. The Atlantic ridge
extends southwestward from a 1029 mb Azores High centered near
36N27W to 27N61W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are
present up to 200 nm along either side of this ridge. To the
south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are
evident from 05N to 18N between 40W and the Lesser
Antilles/southeast Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to
strong NNE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found north of 22N
between the Morrocco-Sahara coast and 42W. Farther south, gentle
to moderate NNE to NE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas dominate from 09N
to 22N between the central Africa coast and 35W. Light to gentle
NE to SE and monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed
northerly and southerly swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across the north
waters through Tue and exit the area by Tue night. A surface
trough near the central Bahamas will dissipate by Tue night as
high pressure builds across the area from the E bringing gentle to
moderate southerly winds. A weak low pres is forecast to develop
along a frontal boundary just off SE US by late Wed with little
impact in winds and seas.

$$
ERA
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