[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160956
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 15W, from 02N
to 12N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted west of the wave from 03N to 06N, between 16W
and 24W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N22W to 01N40W to 06N57W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 06N between 30W and 42W, and
from 05N to 08N between 46W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is analyzed in the
central Gulf of Mexico along 90W. A few thunderstorms are
observed in the vicinity of this feature. Otherwise, weak high
pressure dominates the basin with light to gentle winds and slight
seas across the basin.

The Popocatepetl volcano is producing volcanic ash that may be
reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico. While the latest advisory suggests
the ashfall is now confined inland and visibility doesn't appear
to be degraded significantly over the Gulf, any remaining pumice
rafts are hazardous to salt water intakes and should be avoided.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters this week producing mainly light to
gentle winds and slight seas. Gentle to moderate westerly winds
are expected over the northern Gulf Wed and Wed night as a cold
front approaches the area. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
forecast at night near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sat
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the northern
coast of Panama. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
09N to 12N between 79W and 82W. The gradient between subtropical
high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds in the central
and eastern Caribbean. These winds are building 4-6 ft seas.
Gentle winds and slight seas are observed in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south central and SE
Caribbean will decrease to moderate tonight before regenerating
Thu-Fri. Light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean will persist
through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 30N57W to the NW Bahamas.
Isolated moderate convection is observed from 22N to 28N between
62W and 72W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the western
Atlantic with gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between high pressure
near the Azores and lower pressure over NW Africa is supporting
fresh NE winds and 6-8 ft seas. In the tropical Atlantic south of
20N, moderate to fresh trade winds and 6-9 ft seas are observed.

For the forecast west of 55W, gentle to moderate winds will
persist across the majority of the western Atlantic through the
week. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries will
move over the western subtropical Atlantic late Tue. By Thu, high
pressure will build NW of this feature and the gradient will
generate strong easterly winds and build seas of 8-12 ft north of
31N, off the coast of South Carolina.

$$
Flynn
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