[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N26W to
02N42W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed from the equator to 07N between 05W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough persists across the western Gulf this afternoon,
along about 95W, and has been the focus for very active convection
there in the past 24 hours, supported by upper level divergent
flow. A few clusters of strong thunderstorms are along the trough
to the N of 24N. Moderate to locally fresh ESE winds are east of
the trough, with moderate NW winds west of the trough. Seas have
subsided slightly in recent hours and are generally 5 to 6 ft per
buoy observations. East of 90W, gentle to moderate winds with 2
to 4 ft seas are noted in recent buoy observations. Strong
afternoon thunderstorms have developed across much of the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and are moving near the coast between Campeche
and Progreso.

For the forecast, weak surface high pressure is centered across
the SE U.S. this evening and will drift southward into the
north central Gulf late Mon, and then settle along 25N by mid
week. Expect fresh to locally strong winds to pulse to strong
near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and then to
fresh speeds Mon evening and night. Winds are forecast to diminish
to light to gentle speeds elsewhere on Mon, and then prevail
through Thu night. Slight to moderate seas are expected with these
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a weakening subtropical high-
pressure ridge extending along 31N to the north of the basin and
lower pressure over the SW Caribbean supports fresh to strong
winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela, south of 15N between the
ABC Islands and 76W. Seas range from 6 to 9 ft. Fresh E-SE winds
are across the remainder of the central and eastern basin, east of
76W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Recent satellite scatterometer
data suggest that gentle to moderate winds are over the basin west
of 76W, except for within the Gulf of Honduras, where winds may
be moderate to fresh with seas up to 5 ft. Convective activity
across the basin is confined to land areas, with no significant
precipitation over water at this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge to the north will shift
E and weaken tonight into Mon, and gradually be replaced by weak
high pressure Tue through Wed. Look for fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-central Caribbean
tonight before winds and seas diminish early this week. Moderate
to fresh winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean will
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon and continue through
the remainder forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary boundary extends from 31N49W to 27N58W, then
continues as a dissipating trough the 28N70W. A surface trough
extends from the SE Bahamas along 75W-76W to near 30N, and continues
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across and E of the
trough to 70W. This ongoing activity is being supported by upper
troughing just to the west providing divergence aloft across this
area. Moderate to locally fresh winds E to SE winds are occurring
E of the trough to near 60W, while gentle to moderate NE winds are
west of the trough. Otherwise, the remainder of these subtropical
waters is under the influence of the Bermuda and Azores Highs,
which support mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 32W and
fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas E of 32W and N of 24N.
Seas of 3-6 ft are elsewhere. In the tropics, south of 20N, winds
are generally moderate to fresh W of 35W with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front is expected to
dissipate overnight. A new cold front across the western Atlantic
will move southeastward tonight to reach the north-central waters,
and exit the area by Tue evening. Weak high pressure will prevail
behind it. The surface trough across the the Bahamas will linger
through Tue, with continued active weather expected near and E of
it. Otherwise, surface ridging will dominate the remainder of the
forecast period.

$$
Stripling
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