[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N, to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, to 01N18W,
and 01N38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is within 240 nm to the east of the north-to-
south oriented monsoon trough from Africa southward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough, and a surface trough, have been in the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico during much of the last 24
hours or so. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong covers the areas that are from the Yucatan
Peninsula to the coast of Texas. A 1020 mb high pressure center
is off the coast of SE Louisiana and Mississippi.

Fresh NE-to-E winds are within 250 nm to the north of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are
elsewhere from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are
in the eastern half of the area. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 5 feet in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. An
exception is for 3 feet off the NW corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from the
Florida Big Bend westward, and from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere.

Fresh to locally strong winds near and NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula will decrease to moderate early Mon. Winds across the
majority of the basin are forecast to diminish to gentle Mon
afternoon, and further decrease to light from Tue-Thu. Moderate
seas in the western Gulf will abate Mon night, leaving slight
seas throughout the basin for the remainder of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model shows that a 250 mb trough passes through SE Cuba
to Jamaica, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
The GFS model for 500 mb shows that a trough passes through the
Yucatan Peninsula, to Honduras, to northern sections of Costa
Rica. The southern end of a surface trough reaches SE Cuba.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N
northward from 70W westward. Upper level moisture is moving
northeastward, from the offshore waters of Colombia,
northeastward, from 70W eastward.

Strong E winds are within 240 nm to the north of the coasts of
Colombia and Venezuela between 69W and 75W. Mostly fresh NE
winds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh E
winds are from 70W eastward. Fresh NE winds are within 160 nm to
the north of the eastern half of the coastal areas of Honduras.
Moderate wind speeds cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The
sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet between Puerto Rico and
Jamaica from Hispaniola southward. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 80W eastward. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet from Honduras northward from 80W
westward, and they range from 1 foot to 2 feet from Honduras
southward from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall total, for the
period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.45 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas are
expected in the south-central Caribbean through tonight before
diminishing early this week. Moderate to fresh winds elsewhere
in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds Mon and continue through the remainder of the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 29N76W to SE Cuba. Fresh SE winds are
from 90 nm to 240 nm to the east of the surface trough from 22N
to 26N. the sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from 60W
westward. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow
surrounds the area of the surface trough.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong, is from 60W westward. The 24-hour rainfall total
in inches, for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.13 in
Nassau in the Bahamas, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N50W 28N56W.
Rainshowers are possible from 19N northward from 60W eastward. A
1032 mb high pressure center is near 39N23W.
A surface ridge passes through 31N40W to 28N51W to 29N71W.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward
from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Strong NE winds are from 30N northward from 20W eastward, and
from 10N to 14N between 40W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are from 22N
northward between 20W and 30W, from 06N to 29N between 30W and
40W, from 05N to 18N between 40W and 50W, and from 08N to 16N
between 50W and 60W.
Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean.

A weak cold front will approach the northern waters Mon night
and exit the area by Tue night. A surface trough near the
Bahamas will linger into Wed. Otherwise surface ridging and
gentle to moderate winds will continue to dominate the remainder
of the forecast period.

$$
MT/DF
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