[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 01N30W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from the equator to 07N between 05W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level divergent flow supports a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms in the western Gulf, where a surface trough is now
present. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are east of the trough,
mainly east of 94W, with moderate NW winds west of the trough.
Although strong gusty winds have mainly diminished over the
area, seas remain elevated, ranging from 4 to 6 ft to the west
of 90W. East of 90W, gentle to moderate winds with 2 to 4 ft
seas are noted in recent buoy observations.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Winds are
forecast to diminish to light to gentle speeds on Mon and prevail
through Thu night. Slight to moderate seas will prevail.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge
extending to the northern basin and lower pressure over the SW
Caribbean supports fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia and
Venezuela, south of 14N between the ABC Islands and 76W. Seas
range from 6 to 8 ft. Fresh E winds are across the remainder of
the central and eastern basin, east of 76W, where seas are 4 to
6 ft. Recent satellite scatterometer data suggest that gentle to
moderate winds are over the basin west of 76W, except for within
the Gulf of Honduras, where winds may be moderate to fresh with
seas up to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through
tonight before diminishing early this week. Moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds Mon and continue through the
remainder forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary boundary extends from 31N48W to 26N56W and is
forecast to dissipate during the day today. A surface trough
near the Bahamas continues to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Islands and adjacent waters. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted in this region. Otherwise, the
remainder of subtropical waters is under the influence of the
Bermuda and Azores Highs, which support mainly gentle to
moderate E to SE winds W of 32W and fresh to strong NE winds and
7-10 ft seas E of 32W and N of 24N. Seas of 3-6 ft are
elsewhere. In the tropics, south of 20N, winds are generally
moderate to fresh W of 35W with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is forecast to reach
the north-central waters tonight and exit the area by Tue
evening. A surface trough in the area of the Bahamas will linger
through Tue. Otherwise, surface ridging will dominate the
remainder of the forecast period.

$$
MORA
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