[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

The Meteo-France 24-hour outlook, for the period 36 through 60
hours, mentions the persistence of northerly near gale conditions
for the marine zone CANARIAS. Please, refer to the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast for METAREA 2, at https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11.5W and
continues to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from
05N16W to 03.5N33W to coastal Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 01.5N to 06N between 14W
and 26W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere from 01N to 07N between 29W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A negatively-tilted upper level trough extends across Texas and
into the NW Gulf waters near 27N73W. A low to middle level
cyclonic circulation has been observed throughout the day along
the base of the upper trough, shifting northeastward across the NW
Gulf, and initiating active convection across this area.
Convection has diminished in areal coverage in recent hours, with
a small cluster of moderate to strong convection centered about a
tight cyclonic circulation, likely at low to middle levels, near
28.5N92W. A surface trough has likely developed at the surface
there. Surface observations this afternoon suggest moderate to
fresh SE winds across the Gulf W of 88W, with stronger winds near
the active convection. Local buoy observations indicate seas have
subsided slightly, to 5 to 7 ft across NW portions, 4 to 6 ft
across SW portions, and 1 to 3 ft E of 88W. Strong afternoon
convection across NW Cuba is drifting northward into the waters of
the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure ridge will continue
to extend westward into the E Gulf waters through Mon, producing
gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh
return flow W of 90W. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to
strong speeds over the western Gulf on Sat, with seas building to
8 or 9 ft. Fresh winds will pulse to strong near and to the NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Slight to
moderate seas are expected basin-wide through Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical Atlantic Ridge extends to the southern Bahamas and
the northern Caribbean waters, and is sustaining fresh to locally
strong tradewinds and 6 to 9 ft seas across south central
portions of the Caribbean. The strongest winds and seas are
across the offshore waters between Caracas, Venezuela and
Barranquilla, Colombia. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the
Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean, strongest
at night, through Sat night. Fresh to strong E winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night with
seas building to 7 or 8 ft each night. Fresh NE to E winds may
briefly develop in the lee of southern Cuba and the Windward
Passage Fri night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section about the Gale Warning
issued for waters E of 35W by Meteo-France.

Surface ridging associated with the Azores High covers the entire
Atlantic subtropical waters and supports mainly gentle to moderate
winds W of the Cabo Verde Islands, and fresh to strong winds N of
25N and E of 27W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell, except for 8
to 10 ft in the region of fresh to strong winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front just N of the area this
evening will move across the northern forecast waters and reach
from near 31N56W to the central Bahamas Thu morning, and from
29N55W to the SE Bahamas by Fri morning before weakening over the
far eastern part of the area by Fri night. Mainly moderate NE to E
winds will follow the front with seas briefly building to 8 ft
over the NE waters on Fri. Otherwise, easterly winds will freshen
E of the Bahamas and in the Great Bahama Bank Fri night into Sat
as high pressure off the Carolinas strengthens.

$$

Stripling
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