[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

The 24-hour outlook, for the period that follows the
initial Meteo-France marine forecast, consists of
the threat of gale-force winds between the islands
that are in the marine zone CANARIAS.
Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast,
that is on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough curves through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N, to 0N36W. No ITCZ is present.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong generally is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.
The comparatively greatest amount of precipitation is
confined to the areas that are mainly from 08N southward
from 45W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the coastal plains, from the Deep
South of Texas to Mississippi. The GFS model shows
a trough from 700 mb to 250 mb. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N to 31N
between south central Louisiana and east Texas. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 88W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area,
from the NE corner into the SW corner.

Moderate to fresh return flow is from 90W westward.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the eastern
half of the area. The sea heights range from: 4 feet
to 5 feet from 90W westward; from the east central
sections to the Yucatan Peninsula; and from 1 foot
to 2 feet elsewhere from 90W eastward.

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
through Sun producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds
E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through
Sun night. Slight to moderate seas are expected
basin-wide through Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong easterly winds cover the waters that are from
15N southward between 65W and 77W. Fresh easterly winds
are in the rest of the waters that are from 18N southward
from 80W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong easterly
winds are from 18N southward from 82W westward, in the
NW corner of the area. Moderate or slower wind speeds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
range from 6 feet to 7 feet in general from the Greater
Antilles southward between Puerto Rico and 80W. A maximum
value of 9 feet is to the NW of the coast of the Peninsula
de la Guajira of Colombia. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 80W eastward. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere from 80W
westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Venezuela through tonight. Fresh to strong
E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Sat night with seas building to 7 or 8 ft.
Fresh NE to E winds may briefly develop in the lee of
southern Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri night.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about the 24-hour OUTLOOK for the METEO-FRANCE forecast
in the CANARIAS marine zone.

A surface ridge passes from a 1027 mb high pressure center
that is near 35N34W, through 31N39W 27N49W 24N59W, to the
SE Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong, is from 20N northward from 20W westward. The
precipitation is in the areas of continually-weakening
and left-over instability, from an earlier frontal boundary.

The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet from 24N
northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from
7 feet to 8 feet from 06N to 20N between 40W and 60W.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder
of the areas that are from 70W eastward. The sea heights
are 3 feet or lower from 70W westward.

Strong to near gale-force winds are from 28N northward
from 25W eastward. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds
are to the south of the line 30N30W 24N49W 20N60W. Moderate
or slower wind speeds, including from 11N to 26N from 30W
eastward, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
An exception is fresh to strong SW winds that are within
60 nm on either side of the line 31N61W 29N64W.

A cold front will move across the northern forecast
waters today. It is forecast to reach from near 31N56W to
the central Bahamas Thu morning, and from 29N55W to the
SE Bahamas by Fri morning before weakening over the far
eastern part of the area by Fri night. Mainly moderate
NE to E winds will follow the front with seas briefly
building to 8 ft over the NE waters on Fri. Otherwise,
easterly winds will freshen E of the Bahamas and
in the Great Bahama Bank Fri night into Sat as high
pressure off the Carolinas strengthen.

$$
mt/gr
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