[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near-gale Conditions at the Eastern Atlantic:

Strong to near-gale northerly winds will persist near the Canary
Islands within the Meteo-France Canarias marine zone for the next
18 hours. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Guinea-Sierra Leone
border, then extends to near 07N16W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen south of the trough from 02N to 04N between the southern
Liberia coast and 16W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from
07N16W across 03N30W to northeast of Sao Luis, Brazil near
01.5N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted near and south of the ITCZ from 01N to 06N between 16W and
25W. Widely scattered showers are present up to 100 nm along
either side of the rest of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Aided by a mid-level trough along the Mexico east coast, a
surface trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
near Tampico, Mexico and nearby Gulf waters. Thick cirrus from
earlier convection is lingering at the north-central Gulf. A
surface ridge extends westward from a 1017 mb high at the east-
central Gulf to west- central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 3 ft are found at the eastern Gulf. Fresh to locally
strong E to ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through Mon, producing gentle to moderate E to SE
winds east of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow west of 90W.
Winds are forecast to become fresh to strong over the western
Gulf on Sat with seas building to near 9 ft. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse near and northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through Sat night. Slight to moderate seas
are expected for the entire Gulf through Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic Ridge north of the basin near 23N sustains a
relatively fair trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. The
only exception are scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near Jamaica and south of the Windward Passage caused by
convergent trades. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to
7 ft are evident at the south-central basin, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh easterly winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen at the eastern and north-central
basin. Fresh to strong ESE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate
the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with 3
to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected mainly at night in the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat night.
Fresh to strong E winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras
at night through Sat night with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh NE to
E winds may briefly develop in the lee of southern Cuba and the
Windward Passage Fri night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds
are forecast basin-wide Mon and Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning about
near-gale conditions forecasted by Meteo-France.

A surface trough meanders northeastward from near the southeast
Bahamas across 26N65W to southeast Bermuda at 30N57W. Enhanced by
divergent flow at the mid to upper levels, scattered moderate
convection is flaring up north of 22N between 54W and 68W. Outside
of the ITCZ, convergent trades are producing scattered moderate
convection from 05N to 07N between 27W and 47W, and from the
Suriname-French Guiana coast to 08N. A modest cold front reaches
westward from near Bermuda across 31N70W to northern Florida.
Widely scattered showers are seen near and up to 50 nm north of
this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present near the
cold front, north of 29N between 70W and the norther Florida-
Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 4 to
6 ft exist south of this front, north of 26N between 48W and 58W.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident
north of 22N between 50W and the southern Florida coast/Bahamas.
Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate
farther east, north of 20N between 30W and 50W and farther south
from 05N to 22N/20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the
Canary Islands, fresh to strong with locally near-gale NNE trades
and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted north of 25N between the Morrocco-
Sahara coast and 30W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to
moderate NNE to NE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate
northerly swell are found from 10N to 25N between the central
Africa coast and 35W. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in
mixed northerly and southerly swells prevail elsewhere in the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front
will reach from near 31N56W to the central Bahamas Thu morning,
and from 29N55W to the southeast Bahamas by Fri morning before
weakening between 60W and 70W by Fri night. Moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds will follow the front with seas briefly
building to 8 ft north of 27N and east 60W on Fri. Otherwise,
easterly winds will freshen east of the Bahamas and in the Great
Bahama Bank Fri night into Sat night as high pressure off the
Carolinas strengthens. This high will shift eastward while
weakening on Sun, and winds across the western Atlantic will
diminish to mainly light to gentle by Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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