[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for
the forecast zone of Agadir near the coast of W Africa. The
forecast calls for northerly gales to 40 kt with severe gusts
through 08/0300 UTC. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16N then continues SW to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N20W to 03N35W to the coast of of French Guiana near 04.5N52W.
Clusters of moderate convection are affecting parts of Liberia and
Sierra Leone. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 06N between 16W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is near the western end of the ITCZ, from 04.5N to 08N
between 47W and 53W, including parts of French Guiana.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure off the Carolinas located near 34N74W extends a
weak ridge SW to the central Gulf of Mexico while generally lower
pressure dominates the Gulf waters W of 90W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico supports an area
of moderate to fresh SE winds over the NW Gulf. Recent scatterometer
data provide observations of fresh to strong NE to E winds off
the NW coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to the presence of a
local trough. Similar wind speeds are noted over the central Bay
of Campeche. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft E of 87W and 3 to 5 ft
across the remainder of the basin. Smoke from agricultural fires
may be covering portions of the western Gulf. Latest NESDIS SAB
analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over much of
the Gulf region but particularly over the western Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche, where visibilities are likely 4-6 nm. Weather
observations along the Mexican coast continue to indicate the
presence of haze.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early morning
hours through Mon night due to local effects related to a thermal
trough. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to fresh
SE to S winds over the western Gulf through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data reveal the presence of fresh
to strong NE to E winds over the Caribbean S of 15N between 72W
and 78W, with the strongest winds to around 30 kt off the coast of
Colombia where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range, highest near the
coast of Colombia. Fresh trades are also noted per scatterometer
data just off Venezuela to about 14N between 64W and 68W. Moderate
to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere S of 18N and E of 80W,
with seas of 5 to 7 ft, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
W of 80W, with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft in the lee of
Cuba. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate E winds prevail with seas
of 3 to 4 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba likely associated with the tail
end of stationary front extending over Atlantic near the Turks
and Caicos Islands. Patches of low level moisture, with embedded
showers, are moving from the Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles
into the eastern Caribbean. Based on the Saharan Air Layer from
CIMSS, some Saharan dust is noted over the east and central
Caribbean. Smoke agricultural fires may be limiting visibility
somewhat across the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure N
of the area and lower pressure in NW Colombian will support fresh
to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-
central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are
also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E winds
are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. These winds will
begin to pulse to fresh to strong at night starting Wed night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features above for information on an ongoing Gale
Warning for the forecast region of Agadir, Morocco.

A ridge extends over the waters north of the Bahamas, associated
with 1024 mb high pressure centered off the Carolinas. Farther
east, another broad surface ridge extends from high pressure near
the Azores Islands, reaching westward to near the Leeward Islands.
A stationary front is in between these ridges, extending from
31N42W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh to strong S to
SW winds are ahead of the front N of 28N to about 40W where seas
are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell follow
the front mainly N of 28N to about 58W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure over NW Africa is supporting
fresh to strong NE winds N of 14N and E of 30W, where seas are 8
to 10 ft per altimeter data. Elsewhere across the trade wind belt,
fresh NE winds generally prevail S of 20N, with seas of 6 to 9 ft
in NE to E swell mixed with N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough along the east
coast of Florida will drift westward across the peninsula today.
High pressure building over the western Atlantic combined with the
trough will support an area of fresh to locally strong E winds
just off east of central and south Florida and the NW Bahamas
today. This area of winds will shift southward across the central
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by this evening. A stationary
front extending from 26N55W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands
will begin to slowly move E as a cold front today while weakening.
A cold front moving off the SE of US is forecast to affect the
north forecast waters Wed through Thu night, followed by moderate
to locally fresh NE to E winds.

$$
GR
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