[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

The marine forecast from the Meteo-France consists of
a warning for northerly gale-force winds, in the marine
zone AGADIR, continuing until 08/0300 UTC. Expect, also,
gale-force NE winds, in the marine zone CANARIAS, from
07/1800 UTC until 08/0900 UTC. Please, refer to the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is
on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Guinea near 10N, to 05N17W 03N27W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N27W 03N36W, to the Equator along
43W and along 47W. Precipitation: disorganized widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area,
from the NE corner into the SW corner.

The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows a weak
trough that is in the area of Texas from the middle
Texas Gulf coast to east Texas. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong covers Texas in the area
of the 250 mb-to-500 mb trough. Mostly MVFR conditions
are in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. Gulf coast
states, from the middle Texas Gulf coast to coastal
Alabama.

Fresh SE winds are from 28N southward from 90W westward.
Gentle to moderate return flow covers the rest of the
area. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the coastal
waters of SE Louisiana, and 3 feet elsewhere from 90W
eastward. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet in the
coastal waters of the SW corner near 20N, and 4 feet
elsewhere from 90W westward.

Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural
fires, may be covering parts of the coastal waters
of the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and
in interior sections of Central America from NE
Nicaragua to southern Mexico.ATL

Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and into
the early morning hours through Thu night due to
local effects related to a thermal trough. Otherwise,
high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through
the forecast period allowing for generally gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with
the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S winds
over the western Gulf through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through
24N60W to 22N71W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 120 nm on the southern
side of the front. Other isolated moderate is from
27N southward from 66W westward, including in
the Bahamas. E to SE fresh winds are from 16N
southward between 60W and 70W.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and sea heights that
range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are in general, from 17N
southward between 65W and 80W. Near gale-force winds,
and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, have
been within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W
and 76W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
from 70W eastward. The sea heights are reaching
4 feet from Nicaragua southward from 80W westward.
The sea heights are ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet
in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure difference between high pressure N of the
area and lower pressure in NW Colombian will support
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night.
Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E winds are forecast in
the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. These winds will
begin to pulse to fresh to strong at night starting
Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N42W 28N50W
24N60W 22N71W. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 7 feet to the north of the stationary front
between 50W and 60W. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 40W westward.
Gentle to moderate wind speeds are from 20N
northward from 66W westward. Some exceptions
are: fresh to strong NE winds between 60W and 70W,
within 180 nm to the north of the front
and within 60 nm to the south of the front.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 240 nm on the northern side of the
front from 60W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 120 nm on the southern side
of the front. Other isolated moderate is from
27N southward from 66W westward, including in
the Bahamas. A 1025 mb high pressure center is
near 33N74W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow is to the northwest of the stationary front.
The 24-hour rainfall total, for the period that
ended at 07/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, is
0.47 in Bermuda. Strong NE winds are from 24N to
29N from 70W westward. Fresh or slower wind speeds
are elsewhere from 70W westward.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within
180 nm of the coast of Africa from 19N to 26N, and
within 240 nm to 330 nm of the coast of Africa from
26N northward. Strong NE winds are from 16N to 25N
between 20W and 31W. Fresh to strong NE winds are
from 12N southward between 40W and 60W. Fresh NE
winds are elsewhere to the south of the line
30N21W 27N30W 20N41W 17N55W. Moderate or slower
wind speeds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure
center that is near 35N20W, to 31N28W 24N40W 19N61W.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 05N
to 28N from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 40W eastward.

A surface trough along the east coast of Florida
will drift westward across the peninsula today.
High pressure building over the western
Atlantic combined with the trough will support
an area of fresh to locally strong E winds just
east of central and south Florida and the
NW Bahamas today. This area of winds will shift
southward across the central Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida by this evening. A stationary
front extending from 26N55W to near the Turks
and Caicos Islands will begin to slowly move
E as a cold front today while weakening.
A cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Tue, reach the forecast waters northeast
of northern Florida early Wed, then reach from
near 31N60W to 25N68W and continue as a
stationary front to eastern Cuba by late Thu.
The front will be followed by moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds.

$$
mt/ja
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