[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070408
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes extends from the coast of the
Senegal/Gambia coastline near 13N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N20W to 03N25W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 06N between 10W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure off the
western Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf near Tampico,
Mexico. A broad trough extends across the northwest Yucatan to the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong NE winds may be
active near the trough along the western coast of Yucatan. Light
and variable breezes and 1 to 3 ft combined seas are over the
northeast Gulf near the high pressure, with moderate E to SE winds
and 2 to 4 ft combined seas noted elsewhere. Moderate restrictions
to visibility may impact most of the central and western Gulf due
to smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will continue to pulse
near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the
early morning hours through Thu night due to local effects related
to a thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the
Gulf waters through the forecast period producing gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of
moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively tight pressure gradient between surface ridging
north of the area and low pressure in northwest Colombia will continue
to support fresh to strong trade winds across the southeast and
south-central parts of the basin. Seas within this area of strong
winds range between 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh E winds and 2 to
4 ft combined seas are noted over the Gulf of Honduras, with light
breezes and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. Moderate
trade winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas dominate the remainder of
the basin. Smoke agricultural fires may be limiting visibility
somewhat across the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pattern will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Venezuela, through early next week. Moderate to fresh E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. These winds will
begin to pulse to fresh to strong at night starting Wed night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features above for information on an ongoing Gale
Warning for the region of Agadir, Morocco.

Ridging extends over the waters north of the Bahamas, associated
with 1025 mb high pressure centered off the Carolinas. Farther
east, another broad surface ridge extends from high pressure near
the Azores Islands, reaching westward to near the Leeward Islands.
A stationary front is in between these ridges, reaching from
31N42W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh to strong
winds may be active from 25N to 29N west of 72W, between the
western end of the front, the ridge to the north and a surface
trough along the coast of east- central Florida. Fresh SW winds
are evident within 120 nm east of the front north of 28N. Fresh NE
winds and 6 to 9 ft combined seas over the eastern Atlantic, east
of the ridge axis, with strong winds along the African coast north
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
elsewhere. Note: per Meteo-France, the gale force winds off
Agadir, Morocco south of 31N have likely subsided. This is
corroborated by a recent scatterometer satellite pass showing
maximum winds to 30 kt in this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough reaching the
east coast of Florida will drift westward through Sun. The area
of fresh to strong E winds to the east of the trough will shift
southward from the Bahamas to waters adjacent South Florida
tonight through late Sun. The stationary front extending from
26N55W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands will begin to slowly
move E as a cold front tonight into Sun while weakening. NW swell
producing seas to 9 ft over the far NE part of the area will shift
NE of the area by late tonight. High pressure will build over the
western Atlantic in the wake of the front through the early part
of the upcoming week allowing for winds to diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds. A backdoor cold front may approach the waters
offshore NE Florida Wed through Thu night, followed by moderate E
winds.

$$
Christensen
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