[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W then continues SW
to near 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 00N47W. A tropical
wave-like feature in analyzed along 32W S of 10N. Scattered to
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either
side of the trough from 01N to 06N between 27W and 35W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 20W and 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge remains in control of the weather pattern
across the Gulf, with a 1017 mb high pressure located over the
eastern Gulf near 27N84W. A surface trough is analyzed just W of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to
locally strong E winds just N of the Yucatan to about 23N between
88W and 91W associated with the trough. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate E to SE winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas of 1
to 3 ft while moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
prevail over the western Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires may
be covering portions of the western Gulf. Latest SAB analysis
indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations along the
coast of Mexico also indicate the presence of haze. Multilayer
clouds with possible showers are noted over most of the western
Gulf under strong SW to W winds aloft.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to fresh
SE to S winds over the western Gulf beginning on Sat. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night into the early morning hours through Tue
night due to local effects related to a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds of 25 to 30 kt near the coast of Colombia where seas are in
the 8 to 10 ft range. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are observed
over the SE Caribbean, including the ABC Islands, and also the
islands N of Venezuela, particularly S of 14N and E of 70W. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Fresh to locally strong E winds
are in the Gulf of Honduras with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to
fresh trade winds dominate the remainder of the east and central
Caribbean, where seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are seen in the lee of Cuba to about
19N.

The tail end of the Atlantic cold front was helping to induce
convection over eastern Cuba. Patches of low level moisture,
with embedded showers are moving across the NE Caribbean. The
San Juan Doppler radar confirmed the presence of this shower
activity.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through
early next week. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh easterly
winds will prevail. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected at
night in the Windward Passage Sat night through Mon night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the Atlantic from 31N56W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands. A band of showers and thunderstorms is
related to the front but mainly N of 27N. Fresh to strong SW
winds are still noted ahead of the front N of 30N per scatterometer
data. NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range follow the
front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front. A
surface trough extends from 30N76W to the NW Bahamas. An ASCAT
pass indicates the wind shift associated with the trough. To the
east of the front, another surface trough stretches from 25N54W
to 20N59W. Patches of low clouds with possible showers are related
to this trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located near
29N34W. This system extends a ridge toward the NE Caribbean. Light
and variable winds are near the high center. A belt of fresh to
strong trade winds, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range is along
the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge E of 40W while
moderate to fresh winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the
tropical Atlantic between 40W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue to propagate SE, reaching from 31N53W to just S of the
Turks and Caicos Islands by this evening, and from 24N55W to the N
coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W by Sat evening. As previously
mentioned, fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of
30N while NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range follow the
front. Winds are expected to diminish 20 kt or less ahead of the
front by early this morning while rough seas will continue to
affect the NE waters through Sat night. High pressure will follow
the front, and dominate most of region during the upcoming weekend
producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow.

$$
GR
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