[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and extends to near 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from
09N20W to 05N30W. A tropical wave-like feature in analyzed along
32W south of 08N. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted on either side of the trough from 01N
to 09N between 21W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the ITCZ to 02N between 39W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed west of the Yucatan Peninsula from
24N91W to 20N94W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the
eastern Gulf, veering SE to S winds over the western Gulf. Seas
are generally 2 to 4 ft across the central Gulf and 3 ft or less
elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires may be covering portions
of the western Gulf. Latest SAB analysis indicated a medium
concentration of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche. Weather observations along the coast of Mexico also
indicate the presence of haze.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near
and to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the
early morning hours through Tue night due to local effects
related to a thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure will
dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period producing
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with the
exception of moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf
beginning on Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong NE to E winds
over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds off
the coast of Colombia where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds are also captured in the scatterometer pass across
the southeast Caribbean, including the ABC Islands, and the
islands north of Venezuela, particularly south of 15N and east of
70W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Fresh to locally
strong E winds are in the Gulf of Honduras with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate the remainder of the east
and central Caribbean, where seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Light
to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail in the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through
early next week. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong offshore
northern Honduras tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh easterly
winds will prevail there. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected
at night in the Windward Passage Sat night through Mon night,
briefly strong Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the Atlantic from 31N55W to 24N69W,
where it transitions to a trough that is analyzed to near Port-
de-Paix, Haiti. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
along the front, but mainly north of 27N and east to 52W. Fresh
to strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the front north of 30N
per a recent scatterometer pass, while seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW
swell follow the front. A weak 1017 low near 28N76W with an
attendant surface trough that extends from 30N75W to the NW
Bahamas was also captured by the ASCAT pass this morning.

Outside of some patches of low clouds with possible showers near
a trough analyzed from 24N56W to 20N60W, the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is under the influence of broad ridging that
extends from a 1028 mb high pressure located near 31N31W to the
northeastern Caribbean. Light and variable winds are near the high
center. A belt of fresh to strong trade winds was observed in
ASCAT along with 8 to 10 ft seas along the southern periphery of
the Atlantic ridge east of 40W, while moderate to fresh trades
and 6 to 8 ft seas are found west of 40W to the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak 1017 mb low near 28N76W along
a trough will drift southwest through Sat with a surge of fresh
to strong winds accompanying it. The aforementioned cold front
will continue to propagate southeast, reaching from 31N53W to
just south of the Turks and Caicos Islands by this evening, and
from 24N55W to the north coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W by Sat
evening. NW swell with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will follow
the front north of 28N and east of 65W through Sat. High pressure
will follow the front, and dominate most of region during the
upcoming weekend producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow.
Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate early next week.

$$

Nepaul
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