[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W to 11N19W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 01N49W. A tropical wave-like
feature in noted along 31W from 00N-07N. Scattered moderate
convection prevails in this area, along with moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas to 10 ft.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1015 mb high
over the northeastern Gulf to the west-central Gulf. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are found across the eastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the
north-central and western Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail at the south-central Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche. Both GeoColor satellite imagery and coastal
observations reveal moderate smoke/haze caused by agricultural
fires has created reduced visibility across the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through
early next week producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh
SE to S winds over the western Gulf beginning on Sat. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night into the early morning hours during the
forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Mid-Atlantic ridge north of the area near 22N continues to
maintain a fair trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Fresh to
strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted at the
southeastern portion of the basin mainly S of 14N and E of 76W.
Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident
elsewhere across the southern half of the basin including the Gulf
of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 16N with seas at
3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central and SE Caribbean through Mon night,
with seas building to 10 ft through the weekend. Winds will also
pulse to fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of Honduras tonight
and Fri night. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the
Windward Passage Fri night through Mon night, briefly increasing
to strong speeds Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Recent scatterometer data, along with close by surface
observations depict a surface trough across the western Atlantic,
extending along 78W and N of 27N. To the E, a cold front extends
southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N58W to the
southern Bahamas. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to
250 nm southeast of the front, mainly N of 24N. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for additional weather
information in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate winds are noted in the vicinity of the trough and front
across the western Atlantic. Seas of 2-3 ft prevail across the
Bahamas. Seas of 8-10 ft are noted N of 28N between 52W-69W, while
seas of 4-8 ft prevail elsewhere E of 77W. The Atlantic ridge
extends southwestward from a 1029 mb high near 30N343 across
24N50W to the southeast Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE
trades with 8 to 10 ft seas are evident near the Canary and Cabo
Verde Islands, north of 12N between the African coast and 45W.
Light to gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for
the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to
propagate SE, reaching from 31N52W to the N coast of Hispaniola by
Fri evening, and from 25N55W to near 20N70W by Sat evening. Fresh
to strong SW winds are still noted ahead of the front N of 30N.
NW swell with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range follow the front. Winds
are expected to diminish 20 kt or less late tonight while seas
will gradually subside over the NE waters during the upcoming
weekend. High pressure will rebuild over the SE US and the western
Atlantic, bringing gentle to moderate NE to E winds late on Fri.

$$
ERA
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