[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, that is between a 1023 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 28N66W, and comparatively
lower pressure in Colombia, will support strong winds in
the south central Caribbean Sea in general. Expect NE-to-E
gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 11
feet from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. These conditions will
last until the sunrise of today. Expect the wind speeds to range
from 20 knots to 30 knots, and the sea heights to range from 8
feet to 10 feet, from 10N to 15N between 70W and 81W, in general,
until Wednesday night.

Atlantic Ocean large swell event: A stationary front is along
31N28W 30N32W 25N40W 23N44W. A surface trough is along 23N44W
22N51W 24N55W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
northwest of the line 16N60W 20N45W 31N27W. Gentle anticyclonic
wind flow is within 300 nm to the south of the front from 30W
eastward, and within 180 nm to 240 nm on either side of the front
between 30W and 42W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near
28N66W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are from 24N to 29N between 46W
and 54W, and from 23N northward between 58W and 70W. The sea
heights are ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet, in general, from 17N
northward between 30W and 50W. The comparatively highest sea
heights are from 10 feet to 14 feet from 22N northward between
38W and 44W. The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet
between 50W and 60W. The forecast for the sea heights, until
Wednesday night, is for the range to be from 8 feet to 11 feet
from 17N northward between 35W and 53W until Tuesday night. The
sea heights will decrease to the range from 8 feet to 9 feet, from
Tuesday night until Wednesday night. The sea heights are forecast
to be 8 feet, starting on Wednesday night.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Offshore Waters Forecast, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of Sierra Leone and
Liberia, to 07N18W 01N24W. The ITCZ is disconnected from the
monsoon trough. The ITCZ is along 03S25W 03S29W 04S35W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N
southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Strong SE
winds are from 30 nm to 120 nm to the north of the northern part
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere
within 300 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or
slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the area.

A surface ridge extending to the north-central Gulf from the
western Atlantic will dominate the area through tonight. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula this evening. A
cold front entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue will move
southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of
Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the
Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf
behind the front Tue through early Wed. High pressure over the SE
United States by the end of the week will support moderate to
fresh E-SE winds across the basin, and locally fresh to strong
winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken somewhat for
the start of the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning in the south central
Caribbean Sea.

The sea heights range from 7 feet near Jamaica, to 10 feet near
14N80W, leading into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea
heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 13N to 17N between
68W and 73W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the
rest of the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Strong NE winds are from Jamaica southward between 66W and 83W.
Fresh winds are elsewhere from 18N southward. Moderate SE winds
are moving from the Windward Passage northwestward.

The pressure gradient between high pres N of the area and low
pres over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at
the central Caribbean most of the week. Winds N of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force tonight, then again each night Thu night
through Sat night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the
Gulf of Honduras through Wed morning, occasionally reaching near-
gale force. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the
approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.
Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for details about the
large swell event. The main impact will be the high sea heights
with the stationary front and the surface trough.

Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 22N southward
between 50W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 06N to 20N between
40W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are from 19N to 24N between 30W and
40W, and 06N to 10N between 30W and 35W. Moderate NE winds are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 70W eastward. Moderate NE
winds are from 20N to 24N between 58W and 64W. Strong easterly
winds are within 50 nm of the northern coast of Hispaniola
between 70W and 73W. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 20N
to 23N between 70W and 77W. Moderate easterly winds are from 23N
to 25N between 70W and Andros Island in the Bahamas. The sea
heights range from: 7 feet to 9 feet from 26N northward between
the Canary Islands and 24W; from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from
30W eastward; from 7 feet to 8 feet from 10N to 16N between 50W
and 60W; from 4 feet to 5 feet between 60W and 70W; from 3 feet to
5 feet from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward; the sea
heights are 3 feet or less from the Bahamas southward; from 4 feet
to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue.
A cold front is forecast to move off the SE United States coast
on Tue morning, then slowly track southeastward through Fri when
it will reach to along 22N/23N. Fresh to strong winds and higher
seas are forecast N of 29N in the vicinity of the front Wed, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the
pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds
across the Bahamas by Thu night. NE swell will build seas to
around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the end of the week.

$$
mt/al
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