[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia is
supporting gale- force winds within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Winds will diminish below gale force this morning, then
are forecast to once again pulse to gale force each night Thu
night through Sat night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 13 ft
with the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Subsiding NW swell continues to
impact the forecast waters N of 28N between 25W and 35W, with
combined seas peaking near 13 ft. Seas will subside below 12 ft
today.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough moves off the coast of Africa near 08N13W to
00N23W. The ITCZ continues from 00N23W to 04S35W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 20W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the area. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted north of the Yucatan peninsula, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range north of the Yucatan
peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf
today. The front will move southeastward and reach from the
Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico tonight, then
weaken from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed
evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the
northwestern Gulf behind the front today through early Wed. High
pressure will build over the SE United States by the end of the
week, and will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the
basin, with locally fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan
Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly for the start of the
upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Aside from the gale- force winds, fresh to near- gale force winds
prevail over the south central Caribbean, as well as over the Gulf
of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere, except
light to gentle in the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range
over the south central Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over the Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except 2-4 ft in the
lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pres N of
the area and low pres over Colombia will support fresh to strong
easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of the week. Winds N
of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night Thu night through
Sat night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of
Honduras through Wed morning, occasionally reaching near-gale
force. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to
the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build
to around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for
details on the subsiding swell event over the east-central
Atlantic.

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 28N65W. Light to gentle
winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere N of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds are
south of 20N and west of 40W, with light to gentle winds south of
20N and east of 40W. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas, seas
greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 18N between 30W and 50W.
Seas of 6-8 ft are noted S of 20N west of 50W. Elsewhere, seas of
4-6 ft are found east of 65W, and 2-4 ft west of 65W,

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
western Atlantic today. A cold front is forecast to move off the
SE United States coast this morning, then slowly track
southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N.
Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in the
vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere
in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in the wake
of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh
to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by Thu night. NE
swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the
end of the week.

$$
AL
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