[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure
N of the area and the Colombian/Panamaniam low will support
fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of
the week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-
force at night tonight, then again Thu night through Sat night.
Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 13 ft with the strongest
winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Residual NW swell associated
with a complex frontal system over the northern Atlantic
continues to impact the forecast waters N of 24N E of 40W with
combined seas of 10 to 14 ft. As this swell event steadily
subside, seas are going to drop below 12 ft late this evening

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and continues SW to 02N24W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 03N between 05N
and 10W, and from the Equator to 04N between 18W and 21W. There
is no ITCZ present based on the latest surface analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A pre-frontal trough with some shower activity is analyzed over
the NW Gulf while a ridge dominates the remainder of the area.
Under this weather pattern, an area of fresh to locally strong SE
to S winds are noted per scatterometer data across the central
Gulf, particularly S of 26N between 87W and 94W. Mainly gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
within the area of the strongest winds, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan
peninsula this evening. A cold front entering the northwestern
Gulf on Tue will move southeastward and reach from the Florida
Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then
weaken and reach from the Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay
of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front Tue through
early Wed. High pressure over the SE United States by the end of
the week will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the
basin, and locally fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula.
Winds will weaken somewhat for the start of the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

High pressure of 1023 mb located near 27N57W extends a ridge
across the northern Caribbean including the all the Greater
Antilles. The most recent satellite derived wind data provide
observations of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean
south of Jamaica with fresh to locally strong winds over the
eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are seen over
the NW part of the basin, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle
to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in central
Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and
in the Windward passage where seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted.

Patches of low level moisture, with embedded showers are moving
westward across the area, more concentrated over the Leeward
Islands and the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, outside of the warning area, fresh to strong
trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed
morning, occasionally reaching near-gale force. Winds will pulse
to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage
Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in
the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for
details on the subsiding swell event over the east-central
Atlantic.

As previously mentioned, high pressure centered near 27N57W
dominates the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and the
State of Florida. Light and variable winds are in the vicinity of
the high center while moderate to fresh winds are observed
around the southern and western peripheries of this system. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft E of the Bahamas between 60W and Florida. Long
period NW to N swell is affecting most of the waters between 35W
and 60W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft covering roughly the waters N
of 20N E of 55W. Higher seas of 12 to 14 ft are over the NE
corner of the forecast region.

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N28W and continues
SW to near 23N45W. A broken band of low level clouds with possible
showers is associated with the front. Gentle to moderate winds
are on both side of the front per scatterometer data. A significant
swell event is in the wake of the front, with seas in the 12 to
15 ft range E of 35W. This swell event is subsiding. A ridge extends
across the Madeira and the Canary Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move
off the SE United States coast on Tue morning, then slowly track
southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N.
Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in
the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in
the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient,
generating fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Bahamas by
Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the
Bahamas by the end of the week.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net