[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb
Bermuda High and lower pressure near Panama/Colombia will
continue to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean
Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of
Colombia through Tue night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 13
ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Residual NW swell associated
with a complex frontal system over the north-central Atlantic will
continue to impact the central Atlantic waters today. Combined
seas of 12 to 14 ft should persist north of 26N between 29W and
42W. As this swell steadily subside late this afternoon through
this evening, seas are going to drop below 12 ft later this
evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast at
southern Sierra Leone to 02N23W. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is flaring up near and south of the trough from the
Equator to 04N between 10W and 31W. There is no ITCZ present
based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A pre-frontal trough is triggering scattered showers along the
Texas/Louisiana coast. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending
westward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico continues to
dominate much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and
4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf
through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan
peninsula during the evening hours through this period. A cold
front entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue will move
southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of
Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the
Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf
behind the front into Wed morning. High pressure over the SE
United States by the end of the week will support moderate to
fresh E-SE winds across the basin, and locally fresh to strong
winds off the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

A 1023 mb Bermuda High sustains a trade-wind flow across the
entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to
E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are seen at the south-central
basin. Fresh easterly winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are present at
the north-central basin. Fresh to strong ESE winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft exist at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate SE
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the northwestern basin.
Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail for
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong
easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of the week. Winds
north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Tue
night, then again Thu night and Fri night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed morning,
occasionally reaching near-gale force. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for
details on large NW swell and rough seas at the central Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward from east of the Azores across
31N30W to near 23N45W, then continues westward as a surface trough
to 24N52W. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along the Brazilian coast near and
north of Belem. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the 12 to 14 ft seas mentioned in the Special Features
section, 7 to 11 ft seas in NW swell are present north of 22N
between 29W and 60W. Otherwise, a 1023 mb Bermuda High near 28N59W
is providing light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas across the
western and central Atlantic north of 20N between 60W and the
Bahamas. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
occurring off the northeastern Florida coast. For the
northeastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades with 5
to 7 ft seas prevail near the Canary Islands north of 17N between
the African coast and 37W. Farther southwest, moderate with
locally fresh NE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found from 05N
to 20N between 37W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off
the southeastern United States coast on Tue morning, then slowly
track southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along
22N/23N. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of
29N in the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in
the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient,
generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by
Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the
Bahamas by the end of the week.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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